Napoli vs Genoa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Napoli (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Napoli face Genoa.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Napoli host Genoa at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 May 2027 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Napoli — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Napoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Napoli's home record at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Napoli are significantly better at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genoa's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Napoli have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Napoli: 6 wins from 9 previous clashes against 0 for Genoa, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with Napoli winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Napoli and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Napoli in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Genoa in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 47% versus Genoa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 51% | Genoa 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.61 xG and Genoa 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.126 / defence 0.809 | Genoa attack 0.724 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.240. Data: 45 Napoli games / 45 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 58% | Draw 25% | Genoa 17%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Genoa 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Napoli (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Napoli 40% | Genoa 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 58% | Draw 25% | Genoa 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 41% | xG Napoli 1.61 / Genoa 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.126 / def 0.809 | Genoa attack 0.724 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Napoli (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Genoa xG
41%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Genoa kick off?
Napoli vs Genoa is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 16 May 2027 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Where is Napoli vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Genoa part of?
Napoli vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 58% chance of winning, Genoa a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Napoli and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Genoa?
Record (9 meetings): Napoli 6W | Draws 3 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Napoli and Genoa in?
Napoli (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Genoa (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Napoli's attack at 1.13x the league average against Genoa's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Napoli's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
58%
1.71
25%
4.03
17%
5.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.33
0.73
Genoa xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.98
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
28%
3.53
3%
29.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 11.3 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Napoli and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Napoli and 0.73 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Genoa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Napoli have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 26W 8D 11L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Napoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Genoa's form line: 11W 12D 22L from 45 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Napoli are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Venue Form
On home soil, Napoli have posted 2.23 PPG from 22 outings (15W 4D 3L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 4W 7D 11L from 22 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Napoli are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.02 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Genoa in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 26W 8D 11L in their last 45 games (1.91 PPG), while Genoa have gone 11W 12D 22L in their last 45 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Genoa away?
Napoli's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.23 PPG; Genoa away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Napoli or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Genoa in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Napoli go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2022, when Napoli won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Napoli's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Napoli
3
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Genoa?
From 9 meetings on record, Napoli have won 6, Genoa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Genoa 0-2 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Genoa?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 54%, Genoa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Napoli) and 46% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Genoa in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Napoli's recent matches and 54% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Napoli's recent games and 46% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Genoa tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Genoa in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.