Monza 1-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Bologna travel to U-Power Stadium to take on Monza. The game is scheduled for Monday 31 October 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Monza — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza at U-Power Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Monza are significantly better at U-Power Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Monza 1.00 PPG, Bologna 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Monza trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Bologna trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 51% versus Bologna 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 55% | Bologna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.39 xG and Bologna 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.857 / defence 1.087 | Bologna attack 0.968 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.180. Data: 11 Monza games / 49 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 39% | Draw 28% | Bologna 32%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Bologna 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Monza 50% | Bologna 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 31 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 39% | Draw 28% | Bologna 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Monza 1.39 / Bologna 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.857 / def 1.087 | Bologna attack 0.968 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Monza (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Bologna xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Bologna kick off?
Monza vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 31 October 2022 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Bologna?
Monza 1 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Monza vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Bologna part of?
Monza vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 39% chance of winning, Bologna a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Monza and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Bologna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Monza and Bologna in?
Monza (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Bologna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Monza's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
39%
2.54
28%
3.53
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Monza xG
Total xG
2.63
1.24
Bologna xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
8%
12.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Monza and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Monza and 1.24 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monza's recent record stands at 25W 8D 16L from 49 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 21L across 49 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Monza by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bologna heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Monza have managed 16W 3D 5L from 24 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — Monza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bologna's away record stands at 4W 7D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Monza are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.14 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Bologna in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 25W 8D 16L in their last 49 games (1.69 PPG), while Bologna have gone 14W 14D 21L in their last 49 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Bologna away?
Monza's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.12 PPG; Bologna away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Monza or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bologna in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Monza and Bologna runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bologna have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Monza's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Monza
2
Draws
3
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Bologna?
From 6 meetings on record, Monza have won 1, Bologna have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Bologna 3-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 50%, Bologna 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Monza) and 58% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Bologna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Monza's recent matches and 54% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Monza's matches and 58% of Bologna's.
Do Monza and Bologna tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Bologna in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat Monza 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Monza 1-2 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.39 xG and Bologna 1.24 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.86 / defence 1.09 against Bologna attack 0.97 / defence 1.19, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 39% | Draw 28% | Bologna 32%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 55%, Bologna 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Bologna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Monza (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.