Lecce 0-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Bologna (54%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Lecce face Bologna.

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Fixture Analysis

Lecce welcome Bologna to Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare in Serie A (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 9 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Lecce stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Lecce have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Bologna — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bologna's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bologna are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

Despite the home advantage, Bologna have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Lecce.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2024, ended Lecce 0–1 Bologna — a Bologna win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Bologna have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Lecce trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

Bologna trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 42% versus Bologna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 40% | Bologna 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lecce surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Bologna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.03 xG and Bologna 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.725 / defence 1.204 | Bologna attack 1.161 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.329. Lecce's attack rating of 0.725 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Lecce's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bologna's projected output up. Data: built from Lecce's last 61 games and Bologna's last 60.

Result probabilities: Lecce 18% | Draw 27% | Bologna 54%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 5.41 | Draw 3.67 | Bologna 1.84. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lecce's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lecce 50% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 70% (last 10 away games).

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