Lazio 0-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lazio vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lazio host Udinese at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lazio stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio at Stadio Olimpico this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lazio 2.10 PPG, Udinese 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Lazio have won 0, Udinese 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lazio in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Udinese in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lazio 60% and Udinese 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lazio 74% | Udinese 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.88 xG and Udinese 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.334 / defence 0.874 | Udinese attack 1.378 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.160. Lazio carry an above-average attack strength of 1.334 — their λ of 1.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Udinese have an above-average attack strength of 1.378 — the away xG of 1.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Lazio games / 47 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 47% | Draw 25% | Udinese 27%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Udinese 3.70. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 70% | Udinese 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 47% | Draw 25% | Udinese 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Lazio 1.88 / Udinese 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.334 / def 0.874 | Udinese attack 1.378 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Lazio (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Udinese xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Udinese kick off?
Lazio vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Udinese?
Lazio 0 - 0 Udinese.
Where is Lazio vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Udinese part of?
Lazio vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 47% chance of winning, Udinese a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Lazio and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Udinese?
Record (2 meetings): Lazio 0W | Draws 2 | Udinese 0W.
What form are Lazio and Udinese in?
Lazio (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Udinese (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lazio's attack at 1.33x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Lazio's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
47%
2.11
25%
3.94
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Lazio xG
Total xG
3.27
1.40
Udinese xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
15%
6.52
Win to Nil
12%
8.56
4%
23.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Lazio and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Lazio and 1.40 for Udinese, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lazio come into this having played 47 games, going 24W 12D 11L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.43 PPG from 47 outings (17W 16D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lazio on 1.79 PPG, Udinese on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lazio's home form reads 13W 6D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.35 points per game from 23 outings (8W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lazio are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.70 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Udinese in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 24W 12D 11L in their last 47 games (1.79 PPG), while Udinese have gone 17W 16D 14L in their last 47 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Udinese away?
Lazio's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.96 PPG; Udinese away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lazio's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lazio
6
Draws
2
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Lazio have won 2, Udinese have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Lazio 3-3 Udinese.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 61%, Udinese 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Lazio and 65% for Udinese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Lazio's games and 61% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lazio vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Lazio's matches and 65% of Udinese's.
Do Lazio and Udinese tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Udinese in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lazio's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio and Udinese finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.88 xG and Udinese 1.40 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lazio fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Udinese landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.33 / defence 0.87 against Udinese attack 1.38 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 47% | Draw 25% | Udinese 27%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 74%, Udinese 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Udinese's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lazio 1.79 PPG, Udinese 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.