Lazio 3-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Genoa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lazio vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genoa make the trip to Stadio Olimpico to face Lazio in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Friday 30 January 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lazio have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Genoa have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Lazio, 1.50 for Genoa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Lazio, who have won 6 of the last 7 meetings against Genoa — a 0D 1W return for the visitors.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2025, ended 3–0 with Lazio winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lazio and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 47% versus Genoa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 47% | Genoa 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.29 xG and Genoa 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 0.921 / defence 1.095 | Genoa attack 1.051 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.146. Data: 60 Lazio games / 60 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 36% | Draw 26% | Genoa 38%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Genoa 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 30% | Genoa 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 36% | Draw 26% | Genoa 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Lazio 1.29 / Genoa 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 0.921 / def 1.095 | Genoa attack 1.051 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Genoa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Genoa xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Genoa kick off?
Lazio vs Genoa kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 30 January 2026 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Genoa?
Lazio 3 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Lazio vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Genoa part of?
Lazio vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 36% chance of winning, Genoa a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lazio and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Genoa?
Record (7 meetings): Lazio 6W | Draws 0 | Genoa 1W.
What form are Lazio and Genoa in?
Lazio (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Genoa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lazio's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (1.05x) against Lazio's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
36%
2.77
26%
3.80
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.61
1.32
Genoa xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
10%
10.35
10%
9.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Lazio and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Lazio and 1.32 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lazio's recent record stands at 25W 19D 16L from 60 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 15W 21D 24L across 60 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lazio by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genoa heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lazio have managed 10W 13D 6L from 29 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genoa's away record stands at 7W 10D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lazio are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.03 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Genoa in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 25W 19D 16L in their last 60 games (1.57 PPG), while Genoa have gone 15W 21D 24L in their last 60 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Genoa away?
Lazio's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.48 PPG; Genoa away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Lazio or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Genoa in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Lazio have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lazio won 1-4 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lazio have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
8
Lazio
0
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Genoa?
From 9 meetings on record, Lazio have won 8, Genoa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Lazio 1-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Genoa?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 59%, Genoa 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lazio) and 48% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Genoa in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Lazio's games and 59% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lazio vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Lazio's recent games and 48% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lazio and Genoa tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Genoa in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lazio defy the odds to beat Genoa 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Genoa 3-2 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.29 xG and Genoa 1.32 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lazio beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against Genoa attack 1.05 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 36% | Draw 26% | Genoa 38%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Lazio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 47%, Genoa 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Genoa's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.