Lazio 1-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 41%, yet in-form Bologna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lazio vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 14 as Lazio welcome Bologna to Stadio Olimpico. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 December 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, Lazio have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bologna are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Lazio, 3 for Bologna and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 0–5 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lazio in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 49% versus Bologna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 51% | Bologna 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.43 xG and Bologna 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.232 / defence 0.865 | Bologna attack 1.293 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.113. Bologna have an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — the away xG of 1.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Lazio games / 51 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 41% | Draw 27% | Bologna 32%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Bologna 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bologna (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lazio 40% | Bologna 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 41% | Draw 27% | Bologna 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Lazio 1.43 / Bologna 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.232 / def 0.865 | Bologna attack 1.293 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Lazio (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Bologna xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Bologna kick off?
Lazio vs Bologna kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Bologna?
Lazio 1 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Lazio vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Bologna part of?
Lazio vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 41% chance of winning, Bologna a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lazio and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Bologna?
Record (7 meetings): Lazio 3W | Draws 1 | Bologna 3W.
What form are Lazio and Bologna in?
Lazio (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Bologna (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lazio's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Lazio's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
41%
2.46
27%
3.68
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.67
1.25
Bologna xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
8%
12.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lazio and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Lazio and 1.25 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Lazio have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 23W 14D 14L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna's form line: 23W 17D 11L from 51 games, 1.69 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lazio on 1.63 PPG, Bologna on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lazio have posted 1.72 PPG from 25 outings (11W 10D 4L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 9W 9D 7L from 25 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Lazio are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.55 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Bologna in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 23W 14D 14L in their last 51 games (1.63 PPG), while Bologna have gone 23W 17D 11L in their last 51 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Bologna away?
Lazio's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.72 PPG; Bologna away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Lazio or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bologna in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lazio and Bologna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lazio have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Bologna won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lazio's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lazio
2
Draws
3
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Lazio have won 5, Bologna have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Bologna 0-1 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Bologna?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 64%, Bologna 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lazio) and 56% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bologna in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Lazio's games and 52% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lazio vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Lazio's matches and 56% of Bologna's.
Do Lazio and Bologna tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Bologna in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio and Bologna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 14, as Lazio and Bologna drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.43 xG and Bologna 1.25 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.23 / defence 0.86 against Bologna attack 1.29 / defence 0.93, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 41% | Draw 27% | Bologna 32%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 51%, Bologna 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lazio 1.63 PPG, Bologna 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.