Juventus 0-0 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Juventus (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Juventus face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juventus host AS Roma at Allianz Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventus have gone 4W 6D 0L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Juventus have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juventus have posted 4W 5D 1L at Allianz Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Juventus have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Juventus, 1 for AS Roma and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Juventus in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
AS Roma in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 45% versus AS Roma 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 42% | AS Roma 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.34 xG and AS Roma 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.118 / defence 0.782 | AS Roma attack 0.939 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.145. Juventus's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Juventus games / 40 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 46% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 21%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | AS Roma 4.76. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Juventus 40% | AS Roma 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 46% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Juventus 1.34 / AS Roma 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 1.118 / def 0.782 | AS Roma attack 0.939 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Juventus (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.84
AS Roma xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs AS Roma kick off?
Juventus vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs AS Roma?
Juventus 0 - 0 AS Roma.
Where is Juventus vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs AS Roma part of?
Juventus vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 46% chance of winning, AS Roma a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Juventus and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and AS Roma?
Record (6 meetings): Juventus 3W | Draws 2 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Juventus and AS Roma in?
Juventus (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. AS Roma (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Juventus's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Juventus's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
46%
2.19
33%
2.99
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.18
0.84
AS Roma xG
2.19
46%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
5%
18.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Juventus and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Juventus and 0.84 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Juventus come into this having played 40 games, going 21W 14D 5L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Juventus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.60 PPG from 40 outings (18W 10D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventus on 1.92 PPG, AS Roma on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Juventus's home form reads 12W 7D 1L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.20 points per game from 20 outings (6W 6D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juventus are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.65 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Roma in 62%.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 21W 14D 5L in their last 40 games (1.92 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 18W 10D 12L in their last 40 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or AS Roma away?
Juventus's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.15 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Juventus or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, AS Roma in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juventus and AS Roma runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventus's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Juventus
5
Draws
1
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 4, AS Roma have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when AS Roma 3-3 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and AS Roma?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juventus see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 40%, AS Roma 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Juventus) and 65% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; AS Roma in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Juventus's recent matches and 65% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Juventus's recent games and 65% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and AS Roma tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Juventus's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Juventus and AS Roma drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.34 xG and AS Roma 0.84 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Juventus fell 1.3 short of their projected output. AS Roma landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.12 / defence 0.78 against AS Roma attack 0.94 / defence 0.89, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 46% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 21%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 42%, AS Roma 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
AS Roma's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventus 1.92 PPG, AS Roma 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.