Inter 0-2 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inter vs Sassuolo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 26 as Inter welcome Sassuolo to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Inter have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's home record at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sassuolo — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Inter are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Inter register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sassuolo in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Inter, 0 for Sassuolo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Inter winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Inter in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Sassuolo in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 91% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 91% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Inter 58% and Sassuolo 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Inter 62% | Sassuolo 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 2.17 xG and Sassuolo 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.316 / defence 0.921 | Sassuolo attack 1.066 / defence 1.442. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.414. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sassuolo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.442 — this is suppressing Inter's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Inter games / 25 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 54% | Draw 24% | Sassuolo 23%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Sassuolo 4.35. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Inter 60% | Sassuolo 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 54% | Draw 24% | Sassuolo 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Inter 2.17 / Sassuolo 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.316 / def 0.921 | Sassuolo attack 1.066 / def 1.442 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Inter (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Inter xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Sassuolo xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs Sassuolo kick off?
Inter vs Sassuolo kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs Sassuolo?
Inter 0 - 2 Sassuolo.
Where is Inter vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs Sassuolo part of?
Inter vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 54% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Inter and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Sassuolo?
Record (1 meetings): Inter 1W | Draws 0 | Sassuolo 0W.
What form are Inter and Sassuolo in?
Inter (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Inter's attack at 1.32x the league average against Sassuolo's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Inter's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
54%
1.87
24%
4.18
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Inter xG
Total xG
3.55
1.39
Sassuolo xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
11%
8.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
3%
38.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Inter and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Inter and 1.39 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Inter have picked up 2.25 PPG on a 16W 6D 2L record — W-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sassuolo's form line: 6W 9D 9L from 24 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 1.13 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sassuolo.
Venue Form
On home soil, Inter have posted 2.36 PPG from 11 outings (8W 2D 1L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 3W 4D 4L from 11 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Inter are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.58 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo in 79%.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 16W 6D 2L in their last 24 games (2.25 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 6W 9D 9L in their last 24 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or Sassuolo away?
Inter's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.36 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Inter or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Inter have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2026, when Inter won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inter's record when hosting Sassuolo specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Inter
0
Draws
3
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Sassuolo?
From 8 meetings on record, Inter have won 5, Sassuolo have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Sassuolo 0-5 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Sassuolo?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Inter at 64%, Sassuolo at 91%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Inter and 91% for Sassuolo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Inter's games and 91% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Inter vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Inter's matches and 91% of Sassuolo's.
Do Inter and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Inter.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Inter 0-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 2.17 xG and Sassuolo 1.39 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Inter fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.32 / defence 0.92 against Sassuolo attack 1.07 / defence 1.44, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 54% | Draw 24% | Sassuolo 23%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Sassuolo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 62%, Sassuolo 79%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Sassuolo's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Sassuolo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Inter (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sassuolo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.