Hellas Verona 1-2 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 12 as Hellas Verona welcome Parma to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 November 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 0W 7D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Hellas Verona) versus 0.80 (Parma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hellas Verona, 0 for Parma and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Parma trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 43% versus Parma 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 45% | Parma 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.06 xG and Parma 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.863 / defence 1.114 | Parma attack 0.720 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.064. Data: 49 Hellas Verona games / 49 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 38% | Draw 36% | Parma 27%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.63 | Draw 2.78 | Parma 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 50% | Parma 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 38% | Draw 36% | Parma 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Hellas Verona 1.06 / Parma 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.863 / def 1.114 | Parma attack 0.720 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Parma xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Parma kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Parma kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Parma?
Hellas Verona 1 - 2 Parma.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Parma part of?
Hellas Verona vs Parma is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 38% chance of winning, Parma a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Hellas Verona and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Parma?
Record (2 meetings): Hellas Verona 1W | Draws 1 | Parma 0W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Parma in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Parma (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.86) and Parma's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
38%
2.66
36%
2.81
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
1.91
0.85
Parma xG
2.66
38%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
9%
10.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 0.85 for Parma, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 10W 13D 26L from 49 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 8W 20D 21L across 49 games — 0.90 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hellas Verona on 0.88 PPG, Parma on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 4W 8D 12L from 24 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 2W 11D 11L across 24 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.04 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Parma in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 10W 13D 26L in their last 49 games (0.88 PPG), while Parma have gone 8W 20D 21L in their last 49 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Parma away?
Hellas Verona's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 0.83 PPG; Parma away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Parma have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Parma specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 1, Parma have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Parma 2-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Parma see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 42%, Parma 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Hellas Verona) and 50% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 50% of games; Parma in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 54% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 50% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Parma tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Parma in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Parma defy the odds to beat Hellas Verona 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Hellas Verona 1-2 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.06 xG and Parma 0.85 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Parma outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.86 / defence 1.11 against Parma attack 0.72 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 38% | Draw 36% | Parma 27%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 45%, Parma 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Parma's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 0.88 PPG, Parma 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.