Hellas Verona 0-3 Monza – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hellas Verona at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hellas Verona host Monza at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 21 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Hellas Verona have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hellas Verona have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hellas Verona's home record at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Monza — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Monza have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Monza have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Hellas Verona have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Hellas Verona have won 0, Monza 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Monza trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 58% versus Monza 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 56% | Monza 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.52 xG and Monza 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.078 / defence 1.136 | Monza attack 0.852 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.276. Data: 45 Hellas Verona games / 45 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 42% | Draw 30% | Monza 29%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Monza 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Monza lead the H2H ledger, but Hellas Verona carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Hellas Verona as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 70% | Monza 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Monday 21 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 42% | Draw 30% | Monza 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Hellas Verona 1.52 / Monza 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.078 / def 1.136 | Monza attack 0.852 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Monza xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Monza kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Monza kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 21 October 2024 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Hellas Verona 0 - 3 Monza.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Monza part of?
Hellas Verona vs Monza is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 42% chance of winning, Monza a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hellas Verona and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Monza?
Record (4 meetings): Hellas Verona 0W | Draws 2 | Monza 2W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Monza in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Monza (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (1.08) and Monza's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
42%
2.40
30%
3.38
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.75
1.24
Monza xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
6%
15.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.24 for Monza, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 12W 11D 22L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hellas Verona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Monza's form line: 11W 16D 18L from 45 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Monza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hellas Verona on 1.04 PPG, Monza on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hellas Verona have posted 1.23 PPG from 22 outings (7W 6D 9L).
On the road, Monza have gone 5W 8D 9L from 22 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 0.98 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Early Season
Monza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Monza in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 12W 11D 22L in their last 45 games (1.04 PPG), while Monza have gone 11W 16D 18L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Monza away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.23 PPG; Monza away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2024, when Monza won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Monza specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
3
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 1, Monza have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Monza 0-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Monza see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 64%, Monza 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Hellas Verona) and 36% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Monza in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 36% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 36% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Monza tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Monza in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Monza run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Hellas Verona 0-3 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.52 xG and Monza 1.24 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hellas Verona fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Monza outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.08 / defence 1.14 against Monza attack 0.85 / defence 1.01, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 42% | Draw 30% | Monza 29%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Monza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 56%, Monza 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Monza's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 1.04 PPG, Monza 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.