Hellas Verona 2-2 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hellas Verona face Inter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hellas Verona host Inter at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Hellas Verona — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Hellas Verona have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Inter have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Inter have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Inter are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Inter, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Hellas Verona.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2024, ended 1–2 with Inter winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Inter have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (75 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Inter in-play and half-time data (75 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 56% versus Inter 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 44% | Inter 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 0.80 xG and Inter 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.904 / defence 1.103 | Inter attack 1.498 / defence 0.650. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.210. Inter's defence strength of 0.650 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.498 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 75 Hellas Verona games / 75 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 13% | Draw 22% | Inter 64%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 7.69 | Draw 4.55 | Inter 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Inter (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Hellas Verona 70% | Inter 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 13% | Draw 22% | Inter 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 49% | xG Hellas Verona 0.80 / Inter 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.904 / def 1.103 | Inter attack 1.498 / def 0.650 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Inter (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Inter xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Inter kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Inter?
Hellas Verona 2 - 2 Inter.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Inter part of?
Hellas Verona vs Inter is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 13% chance of winning, Inter a 64% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hellas Verona and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Inter?
Record (5 meetings): Hellas Verona 0W | Draws 0 | Inter 5W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Inter in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Inter (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.90) and Inter's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
13%
7.59
22%
4.48
64%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.80
2.00
Inter xG
7.59
13%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
1.55
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
14%
7.38
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
2%
56.05
29%
3.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 2.00 for Inter, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 75 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 17W 20D 38L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Inter's form line: 52W 9D 14L from 75 games, 2.20 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hellas Verona have posted 1.22 PPG from 36 outings (12W 8D 16L).
On the road, Inter have gone 23W 5D 8L from 36 away games — 2.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.11 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Inter
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Inter in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 17W 20D 38L in their last 75 games (0.95 PPG), while Inter have gone 52W 9D 14L in their last 75 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.22 PPG; Inter away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Inter in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hellas Verona and Inter runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2023, when Inter won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Inter specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
8
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 0, Inter have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Inter 1-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 61%, Inter 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Hellas Verona) and 61% (Inter). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Inter?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Hellas Verona's games and 50% of Inter's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Hellas Verona's matches and 61% of Inter's.
Do Hellas Verona and Inter tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Inter in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hellas Verona and Inter share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona and Inter finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.80 xG and Inter 2.00 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hellas Verona beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Inter attack 1.50 / defence 0.65, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 13% | Draw 22% | Inter 64%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 44%, Inter 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Inter's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Inter (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.