Genoa 0-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus Venezia in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 31 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 0W 2D 2L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Venezia have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Venezia have posted 1W 1D 4L from 6 away outings — 0.67 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Genoa 80% and Venezia 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Genoa 80% | Venezia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.99 xG and Venezia 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.072 / defence 1.392 | Venezia attack 0.621 / defence 1.431. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.419. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.431 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Genoa games / 10 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 55% | Draw 22% | Venezia 23%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Venezia 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Genoa (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 100% | Venezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 55% | Draw 22% | Venezia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Genoa 1.99 / Venezia 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 1.072 / def 1.392 | Venezia attack 0.621 / def 1.431 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Genoa (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Venezia xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Venezia kick off?
Genoa vs Venezia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Venezia?
Genoa 0 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Genoa vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Venezia part of?
Genoa vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 55% chance of winning, Venezia a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Genoa and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Venezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genoa and Venezia in?
Genoa (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Venezia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genoa's attack at 1.07x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.62x) against Genoa's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
55%
1.81
22%
4.62
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Genoa xG
Total xG
3.22
1.23
Venezia xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
3%
31.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Genoa and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Genoa and 1.23 for Venezia, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Venezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genoa come into this having played 10 games, going 1W 4D 5L for 0.70 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-D. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 0.80 PPG from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.70 PPG for Genoa against 0.80 for Venezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Genoa's home form reads 0W 2D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.80 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genoa have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Venezia in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Venezia in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 games (0.70 PPG), while Venezia have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Venezia away?
Venezia's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 0.50 PPG; Venezia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Genoa
2
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Genoa have won 3, Venezia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2025, when Genoa 2-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Venezia?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Genoa, 75% for Venezia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Genoa and 50% for Venezia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Genoa's games and 75% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genoa vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Genoa's matches and 50% of Venezia's.
Do Genoa and Venezia tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Venezia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Genoa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa and Venezia finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.99 xG and Venezia 1.23 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Genoa fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Venezia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.07 / defence 1.39 against Venezia attack 0.62 / defence 1.43, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 55% | Draw 22% | Venezia 23%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 80%, Venezia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Venezia's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 0.70 PPG, Venezia 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.