Genoa 0-2 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Udinese travel to Stadio Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 March 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Genoa's home record at Stadio Luigi Ferraris: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Udinese — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Udinese away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Genoa are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Genoa register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Udinese in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Genoa hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 0 for Udinese, with 3 draws in between.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Genoa winning.
The historical record gives Genoa a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Genoa trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Udinese trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 52% versus Udinese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 48% | Udinese 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.79 xG and Udinese 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.167 / defence 1.066 | Udinese attack 1.002 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.178. Data: 67 Genoa games / 67 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 50% | Draw 23% | Udinese 27%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Udinese 3.70. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 70% | Udinese 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 20 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 50% | Draw 23% | Udinese 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Genoa 1.79 / Udinese 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 1.167 / def 1.066 | Udinese attack 1.002 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Genoa (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Udinese xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Udinese kick off?
Genoa vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 20 March 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Udinese?
Genoa 0 - 2 Udinese.
Where is Genoa vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Udinese part of?
Genoa vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 50% chance of winning, Udinese a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Genoa and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Udinese?
Record (7 meetings): Genoa 4W | Draws 3 | Udinese 0W.
What form are Genoa and Udinese in?
Genoa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Udinese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Genoa's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
50%
2.00
23%
4.31
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Genoa xG
Total xG
3.05
1.26
Udinese xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
17%
5.99
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
4%
22.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Genoa and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Genoa and 1.26 for Udinese, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genoa come into this having played 67 games, going 18W 22D 27L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.19 PPG from 67 outings (22W 14D 31L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 1.13 PPG, Udinese on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Genoa's home form reads 10W 10D 13L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.12 points per game from 33 outings (10W 7D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.10 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
Udinese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Udinese in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 18W 22D 27L in their last 67 games (1.13 PPG), while Udinese have gone 22W 14D 31L in their last 67 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Udinese away?
Genoa's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.21 PPG; Udinese away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Genoa's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Genoa
3
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Udinese?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 4, Udinese have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Genoa 0-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Udinese?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 48%, Udinese 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Genoa) and 52% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Genoa have failed to score in 33% of games; Udinese in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Genoa's games and 64% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genoa vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Genoa's recent games and 52% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Udinese tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Udinese in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Genoa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Genoa 0-2 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.79 xG and Udinese 1.26 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Genoa fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.17 / defence 1.07 against Udinese attack 1.00 / defence 1.20, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 50% | Draw 23% | Udinese 27%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Udinese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 48%, Udinese 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Udinese's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.13 PPG, Udinese 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.