Genoa 1-1 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Inter encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Inter make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 29 December 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Genoa are significantly better at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Inter have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Inter arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Genoa lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Genoa — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Inter — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 42% versus Inter 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 40% | Inter 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.71 xG and Inter 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.883 / defence 1.039 | Inter attack 1.519 / defence 0.579. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.086. Inter's defence strength of 0.579 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.519 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 17 Genoa games / 55 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 14% | Draw 25% | Inter 61%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 7.14 | Draw 4.00 | Inter 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Inter (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 70% | Inter 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 29 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 14% | Draw 25% | Inter 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 42% | xG Genoa 0.71 / Inter 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.883 / def 1.039 | Inter attack 1.519 / def 0.579 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Inter (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Inter xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Inter kick off?
Genoa vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 29 December 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Inter?
Genoa 1 - 1 Inter.
Where is Genoa vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Inter part of?
Genoa vs Inter is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 14% chance of winning, Inter a 61% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Genoa and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Inter?
Record (2 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 1 | Inter 1W.
What form are Genoa and Inter in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Inter (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.88x the league average against Inter's defence at 0.58x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Inter's attack (1.52x) against Genoa's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 17/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
14%
7.01
25%
4.02
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.1%
Away win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.42
1.71
Inter xG
7.01
14%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
3%
38.93
30%
3.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 15.2 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Genoa and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Genoa and 1.71 for Inter, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 26W 15D 14L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter's form line: 37W 5D 13L from 55 games, 2.11 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Genoa have posted 2.00 PPG from 27 outings (15W 9D 3L).
On the road, Inter have gone 16W 4D 7L from 27 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.04 scored and 0.89 conceded. Inter's attacking output running into Genoa's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Inter in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Inter in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 26W 15D 14L in their last 55 games (1.69 PPG), while Inter have gone 37W 5D 13L in their last 55 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Inter away?
Genoa's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 2.00 PPG; Inter away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Genoa or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Inter in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Inter have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Inter — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Genoa
3
Draws
5
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Inter?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 0, Inter have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Inter 2-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 37%, Inter 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Genoa) and 63% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Inter in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Genoa's recent matches and 52% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Genoa's recent games and 63% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Inter tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Inter in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa and Inter share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 18, as Genoa and Inter drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.71 xG and Inter 1.71 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against Inter attack 1.52 / defence 0.58, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 14% | Draw 25% | Inter 61%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 40%, Inter 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Inter's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.69. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.