Genoa 2-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Genoa take on Hellas Verona.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Genoa host Hellas Verona at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Genoa) versus 0.50 (Hellas Verona). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Genoa have won 2, Hellas Verona 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Genoa in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 50% versus Hellas Verona 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 44% | Hellas Verona 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.00 xG and Hellas Verona 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.726 / defence 1.220 | Hellas Verona attack 0.727 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.123. Genoa's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Genoa games / 50 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 33% | Draw 34% | Hellas Verona 33%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Hellas Verona 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 30% | Hellas Verona 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 33% | Draw 34% | Hellas Verona 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Genoa 1.00 / Hellas Verona 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.726 / def 1.220 | Hellas Verona attack 0.727 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Hellas Verona xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Genoa vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Hellas Verona?
Genoa 2 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is Genoa vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Hellas Verona part of?
Genoa vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 33% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Genoa and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Hellas Verona?
Record (6 meetings): Genoa 2W | Draws 2 | Hellas Verona 2W.
What form are Genoa and Hellas Verona in?
Genoa (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Hellas Verona (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Genoa's attack rating (0.73) and Hellas Verona's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.03
34%
2.93
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.00
1.00
Hellas Verona xG
3.03
33%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
12%
8.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Genoa and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Genoa and 1.00 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Genoa's recent record stands at 11W 18D 21L from 50 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hellas Verona, meanwhile, have gone 10W 13D 27L across 50 games — 0.86 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 1.02 PPG, Hellas Verona on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 5W 10D 10L from 25 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hellas Verona's away record stands at 6W 5D 14L across 25 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.82 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 11W 18D 21L in their last 50 games (1.02 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 10W 13D 27L in their last 50 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Hellas Verona away?
Genoa's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.00 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Hellas Verona runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Genoa go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Genoa's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Genoa
2
Draws
2
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Hellas Verona?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 4, Hellas Verona have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Hellas Verona?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 44%, Hellas Verona 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Genoa) and 36% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Genoa have failed to score in 40% of games; Hellas Verona in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Hellas Verona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Genoa's recent matches and 44% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Genoa's recent games and 36% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Hellas Verona 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Hellas Verona 2-1 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.00 xG and Hellas Verona 1.00 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.73 / defence 1.22 against Hellas Verona attack 0.73 / defence 1.15, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 33% | Draw 34% | Hellas Verona 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Genoa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 44%, Hellas Verona 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.02 PPG, Hellas Verona 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.