Fiorentina 0-0 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fiorentina and Sassuolo meet at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fiorentina have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fiorentina have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadio Artemio Franchi — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sassuolo's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sassuolo's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sassuolo in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Fiorentina, 3 for Sassuolo and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 1–3 with Sassuolo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 59% versus Sassuolo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 58% | Sassuolo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.31 xG and Sassuolo 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 0.955 / defence 0.905 | Sassuolo attack 0.976 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.136. Data: 71 Fiorentina games / 33 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 44% | Draw 28% | Sassuolo 28%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Sassuolo 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Fiorentina 60% | Sassuolo 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 44% | Draw 28% | Sassuolo 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Fiorentina 1.31 / Sassuolo 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 0.955 / def 0.905 | Sassuolo attack 0.976 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Sassuolo xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Sassuolo kick off?
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Fiorentina 0 - 0 Sassuolo.
Where is Fiorentina vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Sassuolo part of?
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 44% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Fiorentina and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Sassuolo?
Record (7 meetings): Fiorentina 3W | Draws 1 | Sassuolo 3W.
What form are Fiorentina and Sassuolo in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Sassuolo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fiorentina's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Sassuolo's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Sassuolo's attack (0.98x) against Fiorentina's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
44%
2.29
28%
3.60
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.32
1.00
Sassuolo xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
8%
13.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.00 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fiorentina come into this having played 71 games, going 27W 20D 24L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Sassuolo sit at 1.79 PPG from 71 outings (38W 13D 20L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.79 for Sassuolo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Fiorentina's home form reads 16W 10D 9L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Sassuolo have taken 1.63 points per game from 35 outings (16W 9D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.68 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
Sassuolo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 27W 20D 24L in their last 71 games (1.42 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 38W 13D 20L in their last 71 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Sassuolo away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.66 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 5-1 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fiorentina
2
Draws
3
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Sassuolo?
From 8 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 3, Sassuolo have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Fiorentina 0-0 Sassuolo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 60%, Sassuolo 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Fiorentina) and 54% (Sassuolo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Fiorentina's games and 63% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Fiorentina's matches and 54% of Sassuolo's.
Do Fiorentina and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fiorentina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 34, as Fiorentina and Sassuolo drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.31 xG and Sassuolo 1.00 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fiorentina fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sassuolo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 0.95 / defence 0.91 against Sassuolo attack 0.98 / defence 1.10, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 44% | Draw 28% | Sassuolo 28%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 58%, Sassuolo 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Sassuolo's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.42 PPG, Sassuolo 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.49 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.