Fiorentina 1-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fiorentina host Pisa at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 23 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Artemio Franchi this season.
Pisa — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pisa have gone 0W 7D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Fiorentina, 0 for Pisa and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Fiorentina in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Pisa in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 62% versus Pisa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 62% | Pisa 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.93 xG and Pisa 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.072 / defence 1.147 | Pisa attack 0.938 / defence 1.459. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.216. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.459 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Fiorentina games / 25 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 52% | Draw 22% | Pisa 26%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Pisa 3.85. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 80% | Pisa 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Pisa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Monday 23 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 52% | Draw 22% | Pisa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Fiorentina 1.93 / Pisa 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.072 / def 1.147 | Pisa attack 0.938 / def 1.459 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Pisa xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Pisa kick off?
Fiorentina vs Pisa kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 23 February 2026 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Pisa?
Fiorentina 1 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Fiorentina vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Pisa part of?
Fiorentina vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 52% chance of winning, Pisa a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fiorentina and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Pisa?
Record (1 meetings): Fiorentina 0W | Draws 1 | Pisa 0W.
What form are Fiorentina and Pisa in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Pisa (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 1.07x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
52%
1.93
22%
4.45
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
3.23
1.31
Pisa xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
4%
26.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.31 for Pisa, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 23W 17D 23L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa's form line: 23W 20D 20L from 63 games, 1.41 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.37 PPG, Pisa on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.61 PPG from 31 outings (14W 8D 9L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 9W 12D 10L from 31 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fiorentina are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.30 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Pisa in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 23W 17D 23L in their last 63 games (1.37 PPG), while Pisa have gone 23W 20D 20L in their last 63 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Pisa away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.61 PPG; Pisa away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Fiorentina
1
Draws
0
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Pisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 1, Pisa have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Fiorentina 1-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Pisa?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 64%, Pisa 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Fiorentina) and 52% (Pisa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pisa in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Fiorentina's games and 58% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Fiorentina's matches and 52% of Pisa's.
Do Fiorentina and Pisa tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Pisa in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Pisa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Pisa 1-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.93 xG and Pisa 1.31 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Pisa landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.07 / defence 1.15 against Pisa attack 0.94 / defence 1.46, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 52% | Draw 22% | Pisa 26%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 62%, Pisa 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Pisa's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.37 PPG, Pisa 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.