Empoli 1-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Empoli at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Empoli vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Venezia make the trip to Stadio Carlo Castellani to face Empoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Empoli (all games): 1W 0D 1L across 2 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Empoli. A 1.50 PPG lead over Venezia (1.50 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.58 xG and Venezia 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.907 / defence 1.319 | Venezia attack 0.560 / defence 1.353. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.462. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.353 — this is suppressing Empoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Empoli games / 2 Venezia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Empoli 49% | Draw 25% | Venezia 26%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Venezia 3.85. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Empoli at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 49% | Draw 25% | Venezia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Empoli 1.58 / Venezia 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.907 / def 1.319 | Venezia attack 0.560 / def 1.353 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: Empoli (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Venezia xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Venezia kick off?
Empoli vs Venezia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Venezia?
Empoli 1 - 2 Venezia.
Where is Empoli vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Venezia part of?
Empoli vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 49% chance of winning, Venezia a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Empoli and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Venezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Empoli and Venezia in?
Empoli (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W. Venezia (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Empoli's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.56x) against Empoli's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
49%
2.04
25%
3.99
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.66
1.08
Venezia xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
5%
18.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Empoli and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Empoli and 1.08 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Empoli's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 2L across 2 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Empoli by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Venezia heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Empoli are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.00 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 0%.
Defensively: Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Early Season
Venezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Venezia in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Venezia have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
Have Empoli or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Venezia in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Empoli
4
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Empoli have won 0, Venezia have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Venezia 2-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Empoli's recent matches and 0% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Empoli's recent games and 50% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Venezia tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Venezia in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Empoli 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Empoli 1-2 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.58 xG and Venezia 1.08 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Venezia outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.91 / defence 1.32 against Venezia attack 0.56 / defence 1.35, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 49% | Draw 25% | Venezia 26%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Venezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 50%, Venezia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Empoli arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Venezia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Venezia scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.