Empoli 0-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 40%, yet in-form Fiorentina provide a compelling counter-argument — this Empoli vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Carlo Castellani to take on Empoli. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 August 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fiorentina — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fiorentina away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Fiorentina's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Empoli's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Empoli, 1 for Fiorentina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Fiorentina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Empoli trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Fiorentina trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 64% versus Fiorentina 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 54% | Fiorentina 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.55 xG and Fiorentina 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 1.013 / defence 1.139 | Fiorentina attack 0.966 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.297. Data: 39 Empoli games / 39 Fiorentina games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Empoli 40% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 35%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Fiorentina 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fiorentina (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 90% | Fiorentina 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 40% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Empoli 1.55 / Fiorentina 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 1.013 / def 1.139 | Fiorentina attack 0.966 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Empoli (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Fiorentina xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Fiorentina kick off?
Empoli vs Fiorentina kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Empoli 0 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is Empoli vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Fiorentina part of?
Empoli vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 40% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Empoli and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Fiorentina?
Record (2 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 1W.
What form are Empoli and Fiorentina in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Empoli's attack at 1.01x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
40%
2.49
25%
3.99
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.97
1.43
Fiorentina xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
10%
10.39
7%
13.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Empoli and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Empoli and 1.43 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Empoli's recent record stands at 10W 11D 18L from 39 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 20W 5D 14L across 39 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fiorentina by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Empoli heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 4W 5D 10L from 19 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 6W 3D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fiorentina's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.59 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Early Season
Fiorentina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 10W 11D 18L in their last 39 games (1.05 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 20W 5D 14L in their last 39 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Fiorentina away?
Fiorentina's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.89 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Empoli's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Empoli
4
Draws
2
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Fiorentina?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 2, Fiorentina have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Fiorentina 2-1 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Empoli at 84%, Fiorentina at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Empoli and 58% for Fiorentina. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 84% of Empoli's games and 68% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Empoli's matches and 58% of Fiorentina's.
Do Empoli and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Empoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli and Fiorentina finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.55 xG and Fiorentina 1.43 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Empoli fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Fiorentina landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 1.01 / defence 1.14 against Fiorentina attack 0.97 / defence 1.10, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 40% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 35%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 54%, Fiorentina 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fiorentina's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.32 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.