Cremonese 0-4 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lazio at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Lazio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Lazio at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese's home record at Stadio Giovanni Zini: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cremonese are significantly better at Stadio Giovanni Zini than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lazio have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lazio away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lazio — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Lazio in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cremonese 59% and Lazio 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 50% | Lazio 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.87 xG and Lazio 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.695 / defence 1.075 | Lazio attack 1.051 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.101. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Cremonese games / 44 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 23% | Draw 35% | Lazio 42%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 4.35 | Draw 2.86 | Lazio 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cremonese 70% | Lazio 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 23% | Draw 35% | Lazio 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Cremonese 0.87 / Lazio 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.695 / def 1.075 | Lazio attack 1.051 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Lazio (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Lazio xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Lazio kick off?
Cremonese vs Lazio kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Lazio?
Cremonese 0 - 4 Lazio.
Where is Cremonese vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Lazio part of?
Cremonese vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 23% chance of winning, Lazio a 42% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cremonese and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Lazio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Lazio in?
Cremonese (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Lazio (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Lazio's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
23%
4.32
35%
2.89
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.11
1.24
Lazio xG
4.32
23%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
7%
14.98
18%
5.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 15.0 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.24 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese come into this having played 44 games, going 20W 11D 13L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lazio sit at 1.70 PPG from 44 outings (21W 12D 11L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lazio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.61 PPG, Lazio on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cremonese's home form reads 11W 7D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Lazio have taken 1.43 points per game from 21 outings (8W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.95 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lazio in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Lazio
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Lazio in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 20W 11D 13L in their last 44 games (1.61 PPG), while Lazio have gone 21W 12D 11L in their last 44 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Lazio away?
Cremonese's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.90 PPG; Lazio away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Lazio won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cremonese
1
Draws
3
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Lazio?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 0, Lazio have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Cremonese 1-2 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 62%, Lazio 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Cremonese and 76% for Lazio. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Lazio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Cremonese's games and 62% of Lazio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Cremonese's matches and 76% of Lazio's.
Do Cremonese and Lazio tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lazio in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lazio run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Cremonese 0-4 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.87 xG and Lazio 1.24 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Cremonese fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Lazio outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.69 / defence 1.07 against Lazio attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 23% | Draw 35% | Lazio 42%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 50%, Lazio 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Lazio's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.61 PPG, Lazio 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lazio win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.