Cremonese 1-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Empoli at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 April 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cremonese — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cremonese at Stadio Giovanni Zini this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Empoli stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cremonese at 0.80 PPG versus Empoli's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cremonese have won 0, Empoli 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2022, ended 0–2 with Empoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Empoli in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 58% versus Empoli 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 51% | Empoli 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.88 xG and Empoli 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.718 / defence 1.427 | Empoli attack 0.803 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.171. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Cremonese games / 67 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 25% | Draw 28% | Empoli 47%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Empoli 2.13. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Empoli at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 40% | Empoli 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Friday 14 Apr 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 25% | Draw 28% | Empoli 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Cremonese 0.88 / Empoli 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.718 / def 1.427 | Empoli attack 0.803 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Empoli (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Empoli xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Empoli kick off?
Cremonese vs Empoli kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 14 April 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Empoli?
Cremonese 1 - 0 Empoli.
Where is Cremonese vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Empoli part of?
Cremonese vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 25% chance of winning, Empoli a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cremonese and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Empoli?
Record (1 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 0 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Empoli in?
Cremonese (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Empoli (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.72x the league average against Empoli's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
25%
4.06
28%
3.58
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.22
1.34
Empoli xG
4.06
25%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
6%
15.54
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 14.5 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.34 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese come into this having played 67 games, going 22W 19D 26L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.09 PPG from 67 outings (17W 22D 28L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.27 PPG, Empoli on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cremonese's home form reads 12W 9D 12L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 1.03 points per game from 33 outings (7W 13D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.12 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Empoli in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 22W 19D 26L in their last 67 games (1.27 PPG), while Empoli have gone 17W 22D 28L in their last 67 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Empoli away?
Cremonese's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.36 PPG; Empoli away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cremonese
0
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Empoli?
From 2 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Empoli have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2023, when Cremonese 1-0 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 54%, Empoli 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cremonese) and 36% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Cremonese have failed to score in 33% of games; Empoli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cremonese's recent matches and 52% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cremonese's recent games and 36% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Empoli tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Empoli in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cremonese defy the odds to beat Empoli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Empoli 1-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.88 xG and Empoli 1.34 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Empoli landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.72 / defence 1.43 against Empoli attack 0.80 / defence 0.99, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 25% | Draw 28% | Empoli 47%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Cremonese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 51%, Empoli 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Empoli's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.27 PPG, Empoli 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.