Cagliari 0-2 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Udinese (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cagliari face Udinese.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cagliari and Udinese meet at Unipol Domus in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cagliari's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cagliari's home record at Unipol Domus: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Udinese have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Udinese arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Udinese, who have claimed 4 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Udinese have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 49% versus Udinese 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 49% | Udinese 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.45 xG and Udinese 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.021 / defence 1.023 | Udinese attack 1.331 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.103. Udinese have an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 73 Cagliari games / 73 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 36% | Draw 26% | Udinese 38%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Udinese 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Cagliari 30% | Udinese 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 36% | Draw 26% | Udinese 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Cagliari 1.45 / Udinese 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.021 / def 1.023 | Udinese attack 1.331 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Udinese (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Udinese xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Udinese kick off?
Cagliari vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Udinese?
Cagliari 0 - 2 Udinese.
Where is Cagliari vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Udinese part of?
Cagliari vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 36% chance of winning, Udinese a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Cagliari and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Udinese?
Record (7 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 3 | Udinese 4W.
What form are Cagliari and Udinese in?
Cagliari (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Udinese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 1.02x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (1.33x) against Cagliari's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
36%
2.78
26%
3.91
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.95
1.50
Udinese xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
8%
12.48
9%
11.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.50 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cagliari come into this having played 73 games, going 18W 19D 36L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.25 PPG from 73 outings (25W 16D 32L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Cagliari against 1.25 for Udinese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cagliari's home form reads 12W 8D 16L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.22 points per game from 36 outings (12W 8D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
Cagliari are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.15 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Current Season
Udinese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Udinese in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 18W 19D 36L in their last 73 games (1.00 PPG), while Udinese have gone 25W 16D 32L in their last 73 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Udinese away?
Cagliari's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.22 PPG; Udinese away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 0-4 on 18 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cagliari
3
Draws
5
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Udinese?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 0, Udinese have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Cagliari 0-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 42%, Udinese 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cagliari) and 53% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Cagliari have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cagliari's recent matches and 61% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cagliari's recent games and 53% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Udinese tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Udinese in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Cagliari 0-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.45 xG and Udinese 1.50 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cagliari fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Udinese attack 1.33 / defence 1.13, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 36% | Draw 26% | Udinese 38%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 49%, Udinese 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Udinese's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.00 PPG, Udinese 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Udinese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.