Bologna 0-0 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Bologna take on Torino.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Torino at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bologna — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Torino stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Torino — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bologna, 1 for Torino and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Torino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Torino in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 50% versus Torino 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 58% | Torino 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.02 xG and Torino 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.830 / defence 1.095 | Torino attack 0.600 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.144 / away 1.364. Data: 26 Bologna games / 26 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 34% | Draw 38% | Torino 28%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.94 | Draw 2.63 | Torino 3.57. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 30% | Torino 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 34% | Draw 38% | Torino 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 41% | xG Bologna 1.02 / Torino 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.830 / def 1.095 | Torino attack 0.600 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.144 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Torino xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Torino kick off?
Bologna vs Torino kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Torino?
Bologna 0 - 0 Torino.
Where is Bologna vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Torino part of?
Bologna vs Torino is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 34% chance of winning, Torino a 28% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Bologna and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Torino?
Record (1 meetings): Bologna 0W | Draws 0 | Torino 1W.
What form are Bologna and Torino in?
Bologna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Torino (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bologna's attack rating (0.83) and Torino's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.90
38%
2.66
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Bologna xG
Total xG
1.92
0.90
Torino xG
2.90
34%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
10%
9.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.5 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Bologna and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Bologna and 0.90 for Torino, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna's recent record stands at 9W 5D 12L from 26 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 11L across 26 games — 1.27 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.23 PPG, Torino on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 5W 2D 5L from 12 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Torino's away record stands at 2W 3D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Torino's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.27 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Torino in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 9W 5D 12L in their last 26 games (1.23 PPG), while Torino have gone 9W 6D 11L in their last 26 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Torino away?
Bologna's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.42 PPG; Torino away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Bologna or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Torino in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Torino specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bologna
3
Draws
2
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 5, Torino have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Torino 1-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Torino?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Torino see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 33%, Torino 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Bologna and 17% for Torino.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Bologna have failed to score in 33% of games; Torino in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Bologna's recent matches and 42% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bologna's recent games and 17% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Bologna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna and Torino finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.02 xG and Torino 0.90 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bologna fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Torino landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.83 / defence 1.09 against Torino attack 0.60 / defence 1.07, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 34% | Draw 38% | Torino 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 58%, Torino 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Torino's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.23 PPG, Torino 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Torino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.