Bologna 1-0 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 11 as Bologna welcome Lazio to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 November 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lazio have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bologna 1.50 PPG, Lazio 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bologna, 2 for Lazio and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Lazio trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 60% versus Lazio 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 50% | Lazio 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.27 xG and Lazio 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.978 / defence 0.810 | Lazio attack 1.052 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.165. Data: 48 Bologna games / 48 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 42% | Draw 29% | Lazio 28%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Lazio 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 50% | Lazio 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Friday 3 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 42% | Draw 29% | Lazio 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Bologna 1.27 / Lazio 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.978 / def 0.810 | Lazio attack 1.052 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Bologna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Lazio xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Lazio kick off?
Bologna vs Lazio kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 3 November 2023 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Lazio?
Bologna 1 - 0 Lazio.
Where is Bologna vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Lazio part of?
Bologna vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 42% chance of winning, Lazio a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bologna and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lazio?
Record (4 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 1 | Lazio 2W.
What form are Bologna and Lazio in?
Bologna (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Lazio (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.98x the league average against Lazio's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
42%
2.36
29%
3.43
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.26
0.99
Lazio xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
8%
12.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Bologna and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Bologna and 0.99 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna come into this having played 48 games, going 17W 18D 13L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lazio sit at 1.88 PPG from 48 outings (27W 9D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Bologna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bologna's home form reads 10W 10D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Lazio have taken 1.79 points per game from 24 outings (13W 4D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.52 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bologna have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lazio in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Lazio in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 17W 18D 13L in their last 48 games (1.44 PPG), while Lazio have gone 27W 9D 12L in their last 48 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.67 PPG; Lazio away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Bologna or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Lazio in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Bologna won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
2
Draws
4
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Lazio have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Bologna 0-2 Lazio.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 50%, Lazio 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bologna) and 38% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Lazio in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bologna's recent matches and 29% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bologna's recent games and 38% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Lazio tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lazio in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Lazio 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Lazio 1-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.27 xG and Lazio 0.99 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lazio landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.98 / defence 0.81 against Lazio attack 1.05 / defence 0.96, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 42% | Draw 29% | Lazio 28%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 50%, Lazio 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Lazio's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.44. Form was overturned, with Bologna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.