Bologna 2-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara plays host to Bologna versus Cagliari in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bologna have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bologna have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.
Cagliari's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Bologna's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Bologna 3W, Cagliari 2W, 0D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2024, ended 2–0 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 50% versus Cagliari 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 47% | Cagliari 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.72 xG and Cagliari 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.275 / defence 0.967 | Cagliari attack 0.832 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.204. Bologna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 64 Bologna games / 64 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 54% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 20%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Cagliari 5.00. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 50% | Cagliari 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 54% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Bologna 1.72 / Cagliari 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.275 / def 0.967 | Cagliari attack 0.832 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Bologna (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Cagliari xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Cagliari kick off?
Bologna vs Cagliari kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Cagliari?
Bologna 2 - 1 Cagliari.
Where is Bologna vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Cagliari part of?
Bologna vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 54% chance of winning, Cagliari a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bologna and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Cagliari?
Record (5 meetings): Bologna 3W | Draws 0 | Cagliari 2W.
What form are Bologna and Cagliari in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Cagliari (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.27x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.83x) against Bologna's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.74
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.69
0.97
Cagliari xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
4%
28.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.3 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Bologna and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Bologna and 0.97 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bologna's recent record stands at 29W 25D 10L from 64 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 14W 19D 31L across 64 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 19W 10D 2L from 31 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Bologna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cagliari's away record stands at 4W 9D 18L across 31 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bologna are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.06 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 29W 25D 10L in their last 64 games (1.75 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 14W 19D 31L in their last 64 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Cagliari away?
Bologna's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.16 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Bologna or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Cagliari in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Bologna
1
Draws
2
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, Bologna have won 5, Cagliari have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Bologna 0-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Cagliari?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 45%, Cagliari 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bologna) and 48% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Cagliari in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Bologna's recent matches and 52% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bologna's recent games and 48% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Cagliari tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Cagliari 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Cagliari 2-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.72 xG and Cagliari 0.97 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.27 / defence 0.97 against Cagliari attack 0.83 / defence 1.03, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 54% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 20%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 47%, Cagliari 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Cagliari's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.