Atalanta 4-0 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atalanta vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atalanta host Sampdoria at Gewiss Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 28 February 2022 at 19:50 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atalanta stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atalanta have posted 3W 4D 3L at Gewiss Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Sampdoria have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Atalanta at 1.30 PPG versus Sampdoria's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Atalanta, 0 for Sampdoria and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2021, ended 3–1 with Atalanta winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Atalanta in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Sampdoria in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Atalanta 68% and Sampdoria 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Atalanta 64% | Sampdoria 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.41 xG and Sampdoria 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.037 / defence 1.179 | Sampdoria attack 0.679 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.392. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Atalanta's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Atalanta games / 26 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 41% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 27%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Sampdoria 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 80% | Sampdoria 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 28 Feb 2022, 19:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 41% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Atalanta 1.41 / Sampdoria 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.037 / def 1.179 | Sampdoria attack 0.679 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Sampdoria xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Sampdoria kick off?
Atalanta vs Sampdoria kicked off at 19:50 on Monday 28 February 2022 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Sampdoria?
Atalanta 4 - 0 Sampdoria.
Where is Atalanta vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Sampdoria part of?
Atalanta vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 41% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Atalanta and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Sampdoria?
Record (1 meetings): Atalanta 1W | Draws 0 | Sampdoria 0W.
What form are Atalanta and Sampdoria in?
Atalanta (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Atalanta's attack rating (1.04) and Sampdoria's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
41%
2.45
32%
3.09
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.53
1.11
Sampdoria xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
7%
15.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.11 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atalanta come into this having played 25 games, going 12W 8D 5L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sampdoria sit at 1.04 PPG from 25 outings (7W 5D 13L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Atalanta's home form reads 3W 5D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.76 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Sampdoria have taken 0.92 points per game from 12 outings (3W 2D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Atalanta are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.40 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Sampdoria in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 12W 8D 5L in their last 25 games (1.76 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 7W 5D 13L in their last 25 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Sampdoria away?
Atalanta's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.17 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Atalanta go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2022, when Atalanta won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atalanta's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Atalanta
0
Draws
0
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Sampdoria?
From 4 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 4, Sampdoria have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Atalanta 2-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Sampdoria?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atalanta see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 75%, Sampdoria 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Atalanta) and 50% (Sampdoria). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Atalanta's games and 42% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Atalanta's matches and 50% of Sampdoria's.
Do Atalanta and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atalanta run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Sampdoria 4-0 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.41 xG and Sampdoria 1.11 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Atalanta beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sampdoria landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.04 / defence 1.18 against Sampdoria attack 0.68 / defence 1.22, drawn from 25/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 41% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 27%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 64%, Sampdoria 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Sampdoria's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Atalanta (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.