Atalanta 6-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 53% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs Hellas Verona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Atalanta welcome Hellas Verona to Gewiss Stadium in Serie A (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 26 October 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Atalanta — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atalanta's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Hellas Verona have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hellas Verona's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Atalanta at 1.60 PPG versus Hellas Verona's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Atalanta: 4 wins from 6 H2H matches against 1 for Hellas Verona, with 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2024, ended Atalanta 2–2 Hellas Verona — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Atalanta an edge — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Atalanta in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 54% versus Hellas Verona 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 67% | Hellas Verona 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 2.21 xG and Hellas Verona 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.520 / defence 1.160 | Hellas Verona attack 1.028 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.261. Atalanta carry an above-average attack rating of 1.520 — their 2.21 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Atalanta's last 46 games and Hellas Verona's last 46.
Result probabilities: Atalanta 53% | Draw 23% | Hellas Verona 25%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.90 | Draw 4.41 | Hellas Verona 4.04. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (2.21 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 53% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Atalanta 4 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Atalanta's last 10 home games and Hellas Verona's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atalanta 70% (last 10 home games) | Hellas Verona 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, matchday 9 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 53% | Draw 23% | Hellas Verona 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG Atalanta 2.21 / Hellas Verona 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.520 / def 1.160 | Hellas Verona attack 1.028 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Hellas Verona xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atalanta vs Hellas Verona FAQs
What time does Atalanta vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Atalanta vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?
Atalanta 6 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is Atalanta vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Hellas Verona part of?
Atalanta vs Hellas Verona is a Serie A fixture (matchday 9) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 53% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Atalanta and Hellas Verona will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atalanta vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.52x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atalanta's last 46 games and Hellas Verona's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
53%
1.90
23%
4.41
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.71
1.50
Hellas Verona xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.38
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
11%
9.12
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
3%
36.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atalanta vs Hellas Verona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.50 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 25W 7D 14L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Hellas Verona's form line: 12W 11D 23L from 46 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Atalanta are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 2.14 PPG from their last 22 home games (15W 2D 5L).
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 4W 5D 13L from their last 22 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atalanta are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.09 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
Atalanta (Home) vs Hellas Verona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atalanta
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Atalanta vs Hellas Verona Form FAQs
What form are Atalanta and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 25W 7D 14L in their last 46 games (1.78 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 12W 11D 23L in their last 46 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Hellas Verona away?
Atalanta's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 2.14 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Hellas Verona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Hellas Verona in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2024, when Atalanta won Atalanta 6-1 Hellas Verona.
Atalanta's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Atalanta
1
Draws
2
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Atalanta vs Hellas Verona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Hellas Verona?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atalanta have won 7, Hellas Verona have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Hellas Verona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Atalanta 1-0 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Hellas Verona?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 54%, Hellas Verona 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Atalanta) and 46% (Hellas Verona). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Hellas Verona in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atalanta vs Hellas Verona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atalanta and Hellas Verona matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Atalanta's recent matches and 50% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atalanta and Hellas Verona matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Atalanta's matches and 46% of Hellas Verona's.
Do Atalanta and Hellas Verona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Atalanta's recent matches and 64% of Hellas Verona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atalanta run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Hellas Verona 6-1 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 2.21 xG and Hellas Verona 1.50 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Atalanta beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.52 / defence 1.16 against Hellas Verona attack 1.03 / defence 1.06, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 53% | Draw 23% | Hellas Verona 25%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 67%, Hellas Verona 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Atalanta (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.36 average — above their attacking norm. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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