Atalanta 0-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atalanta and Genoa meet at New Balance Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atalanta have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atalanta's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at New Balance Arena this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Atalanta are significantly better at New Balance Arena than their overall form suggests.
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Genoa away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Atalanta have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 7 meetings, with Genoa managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Atalanta winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Atalanta and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Atalanta half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 51% versus Genoa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 47% | Genoa 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.39 xG and Genoa 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.056 / defence 0.846 | Genoa attack 0.958 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.132. Data: 72 Atalanta games / 72 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 48% | Draw 27% | Genoa 25%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Genoa 4.00. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atalanta if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 40% | Genoa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: New Balance Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 48% | Draw 27% | Genoa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Atalanta 1.39 / Genoa 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.056 / def 0.846 | Genoa attack 0.958 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Genoa xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Genoa kick off?
Atalanta vs Genoa kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at New Balance Arena.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Genoa?
Atalanta 0 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Atalanta vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at New Balance Arena.
What competition is Atalanta vs Genoa part of?
Atalanta vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 48% chance of winning, Genoa a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Atalanta and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Genoa?
Record (7 meetings): Atalanta 5W | Draws 2 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Atalanta and Genoa in?
Atalanta (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Genoa (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.96x) against Atalanta's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.66
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.31
0.92
Genoa xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
6%
16.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.92 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 36W 20D 16L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Genoa's form line: 20W 22D 30L from 72 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Atalanta are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 1.74 PPG from 35 outings (17W 10D 8L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 9W 11D 15L from 35 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atalanta are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.07 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Genoa in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 36W 20D 16L in their last 72 games (1.78 PPG), while Genoa have gone 20W 22D 30L in their last 72 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Genoa away?
Atalanta's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.74 PPG; Genoa away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Genoa in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won 5-1 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Atalanta
3
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 5, Genoa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Atalanta 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Genoa?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 57%, Genoa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Atalanta) and 46% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Genoa in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Atalanta's games and 54% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Atalanta's recent games and 46% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Genoa tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Genoa in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atalanta's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at New Balance Arena, Regular Season - 35, as Atalanta and Genoa drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.39 xG and Genoa 0.92 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atalanta fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Genoa landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.06 / defence 0.85 against Genoa attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 48% | Draw 27% | Genoa 25%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 47%, Genoa 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Genoa's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.66 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.