Atalanta 3-2 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atalanta (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atalanta face Empoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Empoli make the trip to Gewiss Stadium to face Atalanta in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Atalanta (all games): 10W 0D 0L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atalanta have posted 8W 0D 2L at Gewiss Stadium — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.40 lags behind their overall 3.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gewiss Stadium this season.
Empoli have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 2.10 in Atalanta's favour (3.00 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Atalanta register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Empoli in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Atalanta, who have won 5 of the last 6 meetings against Empoli — a 0D 1W return for the visitors.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with Atalanta winning.
The historical record gives Atalanta a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Atalanta — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Empoli — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 54% versus Empoli 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 67% | Empoli 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 2.19 xG and Empoli 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.619 / defence 0.968 | Empoli attack 1.020 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.322. Atalanta carry an above-average attack strength of 1.619 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Atalanta games / 54 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 58% | Draw 20% | Empoli 22%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.72 | Draw 5.00 | Empoli 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 80% | Empoli 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Dec 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 58% | Draw 20% | Empoli 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 65% | xG Atalanta 2.19 / Empoli 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.619 / def 0.968 | Empoli attack 1.020 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Empoli xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Empoli kick off?
Atalanta vs Empoli kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Empoli?
Atalanta 3 - 2 Empoli.
Where is Atalanta vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Empoli part of?
Atalanta vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 58% chance of winning, Empoli a 22% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Atalanta and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Empoli?
Record (6 meetings): Atalanta 5W | Draws 0 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Atalanta and Empoli in?
Atalanta (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Empoli (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Atalanta's attack at 1.62x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (1.02x) against Atalanta's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
58%
1.74
20%
4.93
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.49
1.30
Empoli xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
11%
8.93
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
2%
40.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.30 for Empoli, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Empoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atalanta come into this having played 54 games, going 33W 7D 14L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.02 PPG from 54 outings (13W 16D 25L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Atalanta's home form reads 19W 2D 5L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 1.08 points per game from 26 outings (7W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atalanta are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.80 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Empoli in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 33W 7D 14L in their last 54 games (1.96 PPG), while Empoli have gone 13W 16D 25L in their last 54 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Empoli away?
Atalanta's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 2.27 PPG; Empoli away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Empoli in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Atalanta have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won 0-5 on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Atalanta
0
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 7, Empoli have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Empoli 0-5 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Empoli?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 58%, Empoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Atalanta) and 38% (Empoli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Empoli in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Atalanta's recent matches and 50% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atalanta vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Atalanta's matches and 38% of Empoli's.
Do Atalanta and Empoli tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Empoli in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out Empoli 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Empoli 3-2 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 2.19 xG and Empoli 1.30 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Atalanta beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.62 / defence 0.97 against Empoli attack 1.02 / defence 1.01, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 58% | Draw 20% | Empoli 22%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 67%, Empoli 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Empoli's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Atalanta (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.