Atalanta 0-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atalanta host Cagliari at Gewiss Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Atalanta — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gewiss Stadium, Atalanta have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Atalanta have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Atalanta have won 3, Cagliari 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Atalanta winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Atalanta in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Cagliari in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 56% versus Cagliari 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 64% | Cagliari 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 2.15 xG and Cagliari 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.378 / defence 1.057 | Cagliari attack 0.860 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.320. Atalanta carry an above-average attack strength of 1.378 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 Atalanta games / 62 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 57% | Draw 25% | Cagliari 18%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Cagliari 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 90% | Cagliari 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 57% | Draw 25% | Cagliari 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Atalanta 2.15 / Cagliari 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.378 / def 1.057 | Cagliari attack 0.860 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Cagliari xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Cagliari kick off?
Atalanta vs Cagliari kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Cagliari?
Atalanta 0 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is Atalanta vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Cagliari part of?
Atalanta vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 57% chance of winning, Cagliari a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Atalanta and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Cagliari?
Record (5 meetings): Atalanta 3W | Draws 0 | Cagliari 2W.
What form are Atalanta and Cagliari in?
Atalanta (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Cagliari (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Cagliari's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
57%
1.76
25%
4.03
18%
5.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.35
1.20
Cagliari xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.44
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
12%
8.58
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
2%
46.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.20 for Cagliari, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Cagliari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atalanta come into this having played 62 games, going 36W 11D 15L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 0.97 PPG from 62 outings (14W 18D 30L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Atalanta's home form reads 20W 4D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.67 points per game from 30 outings (4W 8D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atalanta are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.10 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari in 61%.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 36W 11D 15L in their last 62 games (1.92 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 14W 18D 30L in their last 62 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Cagliari away?
Atalanta's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 2.13 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Cagliari in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Cagliari go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Atalanta's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Atalanta
1
Draws
4
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Cagliari?
From 9 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 4, Cagliari have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Atalanta 1-2 Cagliari.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 63%, Cagliari 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Atalanta and 50% for Cagliari. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cagliari in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Cagliari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Atalanta's games and 53% of Cagliari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Atalanta's matches and 50% of Cagliari's.
Do Atalanta and Cagliari tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atalanta's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as Atalanta and Cagliari drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 2.15 xG and Cagliari 1.20 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atalanta fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Cagliari landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.38 / defence 1.06 against Cagliari attack 0.86 / defence 1.13, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 57% | Draw 25% | Cagliari 18%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 64%, Cagliari 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cagliari's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.