AS Roma 3-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 34% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Udinese travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma in Serie A (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 September 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
AS Roma — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, AS Roma have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — AS Roma are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Udinese have recorded 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Udinese have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Udinese are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for AS Roma, 1 for Udinese and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Apr 2024, ended AS Roma 2–1 Udinese — a AS Roma win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AS Roma trading profile (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Udinese trading profile (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 58%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AS Roma 62% and Udinese 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 57% | Udinese 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.38 xG and Udinese 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.026 / defence 1.058 | Udinese attack 1.133 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.171. Data: built from AS Roma's last 42 games and Udinese's last 42.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 33% | Draw 32% | Udinese 34%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 3.00 | Draw 3.11 | Udinese 2.90. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.38 / 1.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Roma 60% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, matchday 5 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 33% | Draw 32% | Udinese 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG AS Roma 1.38 / Udinese 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.026 / def 1.058 | Udinese attack 1.133 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Udinese (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Udinese xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs Udinese FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs Udinese kick off?
AS Roma vs Udinese kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Udinese?
AS Roma 3 - 0 Udinese.
Where is AS Roma vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Udinese part of?
AS Roma vs Udinese is a Serie A fixture (matchday 5) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 33% chance of winning, Udinese a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both AS Roma and Udinese will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AS Roma vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.03) and Udinese's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 42 games and Udinese's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
33%
3.00
32%
3.11
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.78
1.40
Udinese xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
8%
12.22
9%
11.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs Udinese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.40 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma's recent record stands at 18W 12D 12L from 42 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five.
Udinese, meanwhile, have gone 9W 20D 13L across 42 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 12W 4D 4L from their last 20 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Udinese's away record stands at 6W 8D 6L across their last 20 away games, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.05 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Roma have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
AS Roma (Home) vs Udinese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
❓ AS Roma vs Udinese Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and Udinese in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 18W 12D 12L in their last 42 games (1.57 PPG), while Udinese have gone 9W 20D 13L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Udinese away?
AS Roma's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.00 PPG; Udinese away: 1.30 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Udinese in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Sep 2022, when Udinese won Udinese 4-0 AS Roma.
AS Roma's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AS Roma
1
Draws
2
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs Udinese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Udinese?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 7, Udinese have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Udinese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Udinese 2-5 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Udinese?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 60%, Udinese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (AS Roma) and 30% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Udinese in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs Udinese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and Udinese matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of AS Roma's games and 50% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are AS Roma and Udinese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of AS Roma's recent games and 30% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Udinese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of AS Roma's recent matches and 60% of Udinese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Udinese 3-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.38 xG and Udinese 1.40 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Udinese landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Udinese attack 1.13 / defence 0.98, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 33% | Draw 32% | Udinese 34%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual AS Roma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 57%, Udinese 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Udinese's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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