AS Roma 2-1 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Sassuolo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Sassuolo travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 2W 0D 0L from 2 Serie A matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. They are averaging 3.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Sassuolo have recorded 1W 1D 0L from 2 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 2.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.80 xG and Sassuolo 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.149 / defence 1.083 | Sassuolo attack 0.997 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.452. Sassuolo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing AS Roma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 AS Roma games / 2 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 44% | Draw 23% | Sassuolo 34%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Sassuolo 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 44% | Draw 23% | Sassuolo 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG AS Roma 1.80 / Sassuolo 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.149 / def 1.083 | Sassuolo attack 0.997 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Sassuolo xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Sassuolo kick off?
AS Roma vs Sassuolo kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
AS Roma 2 - 1 Sassuolo.
Where is AS Roma vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Sassuolo part of?
AS Roma vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 44% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both AS Roma and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Sassuolo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AS Roma and Sassuolo in?
AS Roma (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W. Sassuolo (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.15) and Sassuolo's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 2/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
44%
2.29
23%
4.42
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
AS Roma xG
Total xG
3.37
1.57
Sassuolo xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
6%
17.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.57 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, AS Roma have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 0L record — W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sassuolo's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sassuolo.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 3.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. AS Roma's scoring rate against Sassuolo's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Sassuolo in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Early Season
Sassuolo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have AS Roma or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Roma have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
AS Roma's record when hosting Sassuolo specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
AS Roma
2
Draws
1
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Sassuolo?
From 8 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 5, Sassuolo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Sassuolo?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Sassuolo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of AS Roma's recent matches and 50% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of AS Roma's matches and 50% of Sassuolo's.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Sassuolo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Sassuolo 2-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.80 xG and Sassuolo 1.57 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.15 / defence 1.08 against Sassuolo attack 1.00 / defence 1.23, drawn from 2/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 44% | Draw 23% | Sassuolo 34%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 100%, Sassuolo 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. That form edge translated into the three points. AS Roma managed 2 against a 3.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Sassuolo shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.