AS Roma 4-0 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (73%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as AS Roma face Monza.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Monza meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Monday 24 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
AS Roma's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, AS Roma have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Monza have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Monza have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. AS Roma's 2.10 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Monza's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, AS Roma have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Monza managing 0 and 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended AS Roma 1–1 Monza — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives AS Roma an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
AS Roma — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Monza — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 59% versus Monza 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 54% | Monza 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 2.53 xG and Monza 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.360 / defence 0.845 | Monza attack 0.801 / defence 1.399. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.232. AS Roma carry an above-average attack rating of 1.360 — their 2.53 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Monza's defence rating of 1.399 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AS Roma's projected output up. Data: built from AS Roma's last 63 games and Monza's last 63.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 73% | Draw 18% | Monza 9%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.37 | Draw 5.69 | Monza 10.80. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (73%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.36 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (AS Roma's last 10 home games and Monza's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Roma 50% (last 10 home games) | Monza 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Monday 24 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 73% | Draw 18% | Monza 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG AS Roma 2.53 / Monza 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.360 / def 0.845 | Monza attack 0.801 / def 1.399 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.53
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Monza xG
53%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs Monza FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs Monza kick off?
AS Roma vs Monza kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 24 February 2025 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Monza?
AS Roma 4 - 0 Monza.
Where is AS Roma vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Monza part of?
AS Roma vs Monza is a Serie A fixture (matchday 26) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 73% chance of winning, Monza a 9% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AS Roma and Monza will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AS Roma vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.36) and Monza's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 2.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.80x) against AS Roma's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 63 games and Monza's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
73%
1.37
18%
5.69
9%
10.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.53
AS Roma xG
Total xG
3.36
0.83
Monza xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.69
18%
Draw
10.80
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
8%
12.53
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
1%
135.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs Monza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 2.53 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.83 for Monza, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Monza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, AS Roma have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 28W 16D 19L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Monza's form line: 13W 20D 30L from 63 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Monza.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 31 home games (19W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Monza have gone 6W 10D 15L from their last 31 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 0.95 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Monza
Blended
AS Roma (Home) vs Monza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ AS Roma vs Monza Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and Monza in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 28W 16D 19L in their last 63 games (1.59 PPG), while Monza have gone 13W 20D 30L in their last 63 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Monza away?
AS Roma's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.00 PPG; Monza away: 0.90 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Monza in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between AS Roma and Monza, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 24 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won AS Roma 4-0 Monza on 24 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
AS Roma
2
Draws
0
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs Monza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Monza?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 4, Monza have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Monza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2025: AS Roma 4-0 Monza.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Monza?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Monza see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 55%, Monza 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (AS Roma) and 42% (Monza).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Monza in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs Monza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and Monza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of AS Roma's recent matches and 45% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AS Roma and Monza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of AS Roma's recent games and 42% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Monza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of AS Roma's recent matches and 58% of Monza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Monza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Monza 4-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 2.53 xG and Monza 0.83 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Monza landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.36 / defence 0.84 against Monza attack 0.80 / defence 1.40, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 73% | Draw 18% | Monza 9%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 54%, Monza 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Monza's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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