AS Roma 1-0 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Juventus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Juventus travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 March 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Juventus — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventus away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AS Roma 1.80 PPG, Juventus 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). AS Roma's 20% and Juventus's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, AS Roma have won 0, Juventus 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
AS Roma in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Juventus in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 48% versus Juventus 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 45% | Juventus 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.12 xG and Juventus 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.012 / defence 0.645 | Juventus attack 1.074 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.136. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.645 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 AS Roma games / 62 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 43% | Draw 31% | Juventus 26%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Juventus 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 20% | Juventus 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 43% | Draw 31% | Juventus 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG AS Roma 1.12 / Juventus 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.012 / def 0.645 | Juventus attack 1.074 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Juventus xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Juventus kick off?
AS Roma vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Juventus?
AS Roma 1 - 0 Juventus.
Where is AS Roma vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Juventus part of?
AS Roma vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 43% chance of winning, Juventus a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both AS Roma and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Juventus?
Record (3 meetings): AS Roma 0W | Draws 1 | Juventus 2W.
What form are AS Roma and Juventus in?
AS Roma (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Juventus (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.01x the league average against Juventus's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventus's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
43%
2.31
31%
3.22
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
AS Roma xG
Total xG
1.91
0.79
Juventus xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
46%
2.20
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
8%
12.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 11.7 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.79 for Juventus, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, AS Roma have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 31W 14D 17L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventus's form line: 35W 15D 12L from 62 games, 1.94 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Roma on 1.73 PPG, Juventus on 1.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 1.93 PPG from 30 outings (17W 7D 6L).
On the road, Juventus have gone 16W 7D 7L from 30 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.56 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Juventus in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Juventus in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 31W 14D 17L in their last 62 games (1.73 PPG), while Juventus have gone 35W 15D 12L in their last 62 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Juventus away?
AS Roma's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.93 PPG; Juventus away: 1.83 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Juventus in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Roma's record when hosting Juventus specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AS Roma
5
Draws
4
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Juventus?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 1, Juventus have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when AS Roma 3-3 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 33%, Juventus 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (AS Roma) and 40% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Juventus in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Juventus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of AS Roma's recent matches and 50% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of AS Roma's recent games and 40% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Juventus tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Juventus in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Juventus 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Juventus 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.12 xG and Juventus 0.79 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.01 / defence 0.65 against Juventus attack 1.07 / defence 0.87, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 43% | Draw 31% | Juventus 26%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 45%, Juventus 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Juventus's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.73 PPG, Juventus 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.