AS Roma 2-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Hellas Verona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 21 as AS Roma welcome Hellas Verona to Stadio Olimpico. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 January 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Roma — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Hellas Verona have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, AS Roma have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for AS Roma, 2 for Hellas Verona and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Hellas Verona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 52% versus Hellas Verona 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 45% | Hellas Verona 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.72 xG and Hellas Verona 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.215 / defence 0.851 | Hellas Verona attack 0.869 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.070. Data: 58 AS Roma games / 58 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 59% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 16%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Hellas Verona 6.25. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 60% | Hellas Verona 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 59% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG AS Roma 1.72 / Hellas Verona 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.215 / def 0.851 | Hellas Verona attack 0.869 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Hellas Verona xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Hellas Verona kick off?
AS Roma vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
AS Roma 2 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is AS Roma vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Hellas Verona part of?
AS Roma vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 59% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both AS Roma and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Hellas Verona?
Record (5 meetings): AS Roma 2W | Draws 1 | Hellas Verona 2W.
What form are AS Roma and Hellas Verona in?
AS Roma (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AS Roma's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.5%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
59%
1.71
25%
3.96
16%
6.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.51
0.79
Hellas Verona xG
1.71
59%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
6.18
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
3%
34.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.79 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Roma come into this having played 58 games, going 26W 14D 18L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hellas Verona sit at 0.88 PPG from 58 outings (12W 15D 31L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
AS Roma's home form reads 17W 6D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Hellas Verona have taken 0.59 points per game from 29 outings (3W 8D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.86 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 26W 14D 18L in their last 58 games (1.59 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 12W 15D 31L in their last 58 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Hellas Verona away?
AS Roma's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.97 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.59 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Hellas Verona been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hellas Verona in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
AS Roma's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
AS Roma
1
Draws
3
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Hellas Verona?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 6, Hellas Verona have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Hellas Verona?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 41%, Hellas Verona 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (AS Roma) and 34% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Hellas Verona in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Hellas Verona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of AS Roma's recent matches and 48% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of AS Roma's recent games and 34% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Hellas Verona 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Hellas Verona 2-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.72 xG and Hellas Verona 0.79 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.22 / defence 0.85 against Hellas Verona attack 0.87 / defence 1.01, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 59% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 16%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 45%, Hellas Verona 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.