AS Roma 1-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AS Roma face Cagliari.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 29 as AS Roma welcome Cagliari to Stadio Olimpico. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 March 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
AS Roma's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cagliari's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
AS Roma hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Cagliari, with 1 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives AS Roma a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Cagliari in-play tendencies (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 58% versus Cagliari 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 54% | Cagliari 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.94 xG and Cagliari 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.431 / defence 0.818 | Cagliari attack 0.846 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.217. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.431 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 66 AS Roma games / 66 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 62% | Draw 24% | Cagliari 14%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Cagliari 7.14. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 50% | Cagliari 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 62% | Draw 24% | Cagliari 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 50% | xG AS Roma 1.94 / Cagliari 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.431 / def 0.818 | Cagliari attack 0.846 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Cagliari xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Cagliari kick off?
AS Roma vs Cagliari kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Cagliari?
AS Roma 1 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is AS Roma vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Cagliari part of?
AS Roma vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 62% chance of winning, Cagliari a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AS Roma and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Cagliari?
Record (5 meetings): AS Roma 4W | Draws 1 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Cagliari in?
AS Roma (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Cagliari (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.43x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.10
14%
7.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.79
0.84
Cagliari xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
7.14
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
2%
49.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.84 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma come into this having played 66 games, going 31W 16D 19L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 0.94 PPG from 66 outings (14W 20D 32L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
AS Roma's home form reads 21W 4D 7L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.66 points per game from 32 outings (4W 9D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.06 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari in 61%.
Last 66 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Cagliari in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 31W 16D 19L in their last 66 games (1.65 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 14W 20D 32L in their last 66 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Cagliari away?
AS Roma's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.09 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.66 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cagliari in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Roma and Cagliari runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2024, when AS Roma won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Roma's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
AS Roma
1
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 6, Cagliari have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Cagliari?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 53%, Cagliari 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (AS Roma) and 50% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Cagliari in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of AS Roma's recent matches and 53% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of AS Roma's recent games and 50% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Cagliari tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Cagliari 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Cagliari 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.94 xG and Cagliari 0.84 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cagliari landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.43 / defence 0.82 against Cagliari attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 62% | Draw 24% | Cagliari 14%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 54%, Cagliari 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cagliari's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.