AS Roma 1-1 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Atalanta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Atalanta meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
AS Roma (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Roma have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Olimpico — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Atalanta's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Atalanta's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Atalanta, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Atalanta winning.
It is worth noting that Atalanta have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Atalanta goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 41% versus Atalanta 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 39% | Atalanta 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.22 xG and Atalanta 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.258 / defence 0.730 | Atalanta attack 1.086 / defence 0.769. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.170. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — their λ of 1.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Atalanta's defence strength of 0.769 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.730 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 70 AS Roma games / 70 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 43% | Draw 29% | Atalanta 28%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Atalanta 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Atalanta 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 43% | Draw 29% | Atalanta 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG AS Roma 1.22 / Atalanta 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.258 / def 0.730 | Atalanta attack 1.086 / def 0.769 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Atalanta xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Atalanta kick off?
AS Roma vs Atalanta kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Atalanta?
AS Roma 1 - 1 Atalanta.
Where is AS Roma vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Atalanta part of?
AS Roma vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 43% chance of winning, Atalanta a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both AS Roma and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Atalanta?
Record (9 meetings): AS Roma 2W | Draws 1 | Atalanta 6W.
What form are AS Roma and Atalanta in?
AS Roma (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Atalanta (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.26) and Atalanta's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atalanta's attack (1.09x) against AS Roma's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.43
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.15
0.93
Atalanta xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
8%
12.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.93 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma's recent record stands at 38W 12D 20L from 70 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Atalanta, meanwhile, have gone 36W 19D 15L across 70 games — 1.81 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.80 PPG for AS Roma against 1.81 for Atalanta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 24W 4D 6L from 34 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Atalanta's away record stands at 18W 9D 7L across 34 trips, a 1.85 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.74 scored and 0.93 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Atalanta in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Atalanta
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Atalanta in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 38W 12D 20L in their last 70 games (1.80 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 36W 19D 15L in their last 70 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Atalanta away?
AS Roma's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.24 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.85 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Atalanta in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 1-4 on 18 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atalanta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AS Roma
2
Draws
6
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 2, Atalanta have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when AS Roma 1-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 35%, Atalanta 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (AS Roma) and 47% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Atalanta in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of AS Roma's recent matches and 41% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of AS Roma's recent games and 47% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Atalanta tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma and Atalanta share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 33, as AS Roma and Atalanta drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.22 xG and Atalanta 0.93 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.26 / defence 0.73 against Atalanta attack 1.09 / defence 0.77, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 43% | Draw 29% | Atalanta 28%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 39%, Atalanta 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Atalanta's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.80 PPG, Atalanta 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.