AS Roma 1-1 AC Milan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs AC Milan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus AC Milan in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 25 January 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AS Roma have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AC Milan's overall Serie A record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AC Milan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, AC Milan have posted 6W 4D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, AC Milan are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
AC Milan hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with AC Milan winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AC Milan have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
AS Roma — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
AC Milan — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 39% versus AC Milan 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 34% | AC Milan 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.04 xG and AC Milan 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.117 / defence 0.685 | AC Milan attack 1.306 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.135. AC Milan's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. AC Milan have an above-average attack strength of 1.306 — the away xG of 1.02 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.685 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 AS Roma games / 59 AC Milan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 36% | Draw 30% | AC Milan 34%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | AC Milan 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AC Milan (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 20% | AC Milan 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs AC Milan | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 36% | Draw 30% | AC Milan 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG AS Roma 1.04 / AC Milan 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.117 / def 0.685 | AC Milan attack 1.306 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.02
AC Milan xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs AC Milan kick off?
AS Roma vs AC Milan kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 25 January 2026 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs AC Milan?
AS Roma 1 - 1 AC Milan.
Where is AS Roma vs AC Milan being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs AC Milan part of?
AS Roma vs AC Milan is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs AC Milan?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 36% chance of winning, AC Milan a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs AC Milan?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both AS Roma and AC Milan will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs AC Milan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and AC Milan?
Record (9 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 3 | AC Milan 5W.
What form are AS Roma and AC Milan in?
AS Roma (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. AC Milan (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.12x the league average against AC Milan's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AC Milan's attack (1.31x) against AS Roma's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
36%
2.81
30%
3.30
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.06
1.02
AC Milan xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs AC Milan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are AS Roma and AC Milan expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.02 for AC Milan, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs AC Milan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AS Roma come into this having played 59 games, going 34W 9D 16L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AC Milan sit at 1.85 PPG from 59 outings (31W 16D 12L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for AC Milan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.88 PPG for AS Roma against 1.85 for AC Milan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
AS Roma's home form reads 20W 2D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, AC Milan have taken 1.76 points per game from 29 outings (15W 6D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AS Roma are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; AC Milan are on 1.61 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; AC Milan in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
AC Milan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and AC Milan in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 34W 9D 16L in their last 59 games (1.88 PPG), while AC Milan have gone 31W 16D 12L in their last 59 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or AC Milan away?
AS Roma's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.14 PPG; AC Milan away: 1.76 PPG.
Have AS Roma or AC Milan been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, AC Milan in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AC Milan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AS Roma
4
Draws
5
AC Milan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and AC Milan?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 1, AC Milan have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and AC Milan last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when AS Roma 1-1 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and AC Milan?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 38%, AC Milan 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (AS Roma) and 62% (AC Milan).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; AC Milan in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / AC Milan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play AC Milan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of AS Roma's recent matches and 62% of AC Milan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs AC Milan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of AS Roma's recent games and 62% of AC Milan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and AC Milan tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, AC Milan in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma and AC Milan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma and AC Milan finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.04 xG and AC Milan 1.02 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.12 / defence 0.69 against AC Milan attack 1.31 / defence 0.76, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 36% | Draw 30% | AC Milan 34%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 34%, AC Milan 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
AC Milan's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.88 PPG, AC Milan 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.