AC Milan 0-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours AC Milan (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AC Milan face Genoa.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza plays host to AC Milan versus Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AC Milan have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AC Milan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Milan's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
Genoa (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in AC Milan's favour (1.70 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, AC Milan are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AC Milan and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
AC Milan half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Milan 58% versus Genoa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Milan 67% | Genoa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Milan 1.63 xG and Genoa 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Milan attack 1.188 / defence 0.700 | Genoa attack 0.838 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.299. AC Milan's defence rating of 0.700 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 AC Milan games / 53 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Milan 58% | Draw 25% | Genoa 17%. Fair-value odds: AC Milan 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Genoa 5.88. The model has a clear lean to AC Milan (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AC Milan at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: AC Milan 40% | Genoa 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Milan vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Milan 58% | Draw 25% | Genoa 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 43% | xG AC Milan 1.63 / Genoa 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: AC Milan attack 1.188 / def 0.700 | Genoa attack 0.838 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
AC Milan xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Genoa xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Milan vs Genoa kick off?
AC Milan vs Genoa kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in AC Milan vs Genoa?
AC Milan 0 - 0 Genoa.
Where is AC Milan vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is AC Milan vs Genoa part of?
AC Milan vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AC Milan vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives AC Milan a 58% chance of winning, Genoa a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both AC Milan and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will AC Milan vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Genoa?
Record (4 meetings): AC Milan 3W | Draws 1 | Genoa 0W.
What form are AC Milan and Genoa in?
AC Milan (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Genoa (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AC Milan's attack rating (1.19) and Genoa's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.84x) against AC Milan's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
58%
1.72
25%
4.08
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
AC Milan xG
Total xG
2.40
0.76
Genoa xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
3%
29.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.3 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Milan vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are AC Milan and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for AC Milan and 0.76 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Milan vs Genoa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AC Milan come into this having played 52 games, going 28W 13D 11L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. The sample for AC Milan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.23 PPG from 52 outings (15W 19D 18L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Milan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Genoa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
AC Milan's home form reads 15W 6D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.12 points per game from 25 outings (7W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Milan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AC Milan are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.10 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Milan
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Milan and Genoa in coming into this match?
AC Milan have gone 28W 13D 11L in their last 52 games (1.87 PPG), while Genoa have gone 15W 19D 18L in their last 52 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Milan at home or Genoa away?
AC Milan's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Milan at home: 2.04 PPG; Genoa away: 1.12 PPG.
Have AC Milan or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Genoa in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AC Milan won 0-3 on 1 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Milan have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
AC Milan
3
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, AC Milan have won 5, Genoa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AC Milan and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Genoa 1-2 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between AC Milan and Genoa?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Milan 36%, Genoa 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (AC Milan) and 40% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: AC Milan keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Genoa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Milan home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Milan play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of AC Milan's recent matches and 48% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Milan vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of AC Milan's recent games and 40% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Milan and Genoa tend to score early?
AC Milan have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Genoa in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at AC Milan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 16, as AC Milan and Genoa drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 1.63 xG and Genoa 0.76 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AC Milan fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.19 / defence 0.70 against Genoa attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Milan 58% | Draw 25% | Genoa 17%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 67%, Genoa 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Milan's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Genoa's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AC Milan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.