AC Milan 3-3 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AC Milan (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as AC Milan face Genoa.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza plays host to AC Milan versus Genoa in Serie A (matchday 35). Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
AC Milan have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AC Milan's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Genoa (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Genoa away from home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in AC Milan's favour (1.80 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, AC Milan have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Genoa managing 0 and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended AC Milan 1–0 Genoa — a AC Milan win.
The head-to-head data gives AC Milan an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
AC Milan half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Milan 58% versus Genoa 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Milan 57% | Genoa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Milan 1.41 xG and Genoa 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Milan attack 1.169 / defence 0.781 | Genoa attack 0.848 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.140. AC Milan have a tight defence (rating 0.781), which is pulling Genoa's projected output down. Data: built from AC Milan's last 72 games and Genoa's last 34.
Result probabilities: AC Milan 52% | Draw 29% | Genoa 19%. Fair-value odds: AC Milan 1.93 | Draw 3.47 | Genoa 5.18. AC Milan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AC Milan at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AC Milan if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: AC Milan 50% (last 10 home games) | Genoa 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Milan vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, matchday 35 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Milan 52% | Draw 29% | Genoa 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG AC Milan 1.41 / Genoa 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: AC Milan attack 1.169 / def 0.781 | Genoa attack 0.848 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
AC Milan xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Genoa xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AC Milan vs Genoa FAQs
What time does AC Milan vs Genoa kick off?
AC Milan vs Genoa kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in AC Milan vs Genoa?
AC Milan 3 - 3 Genoa.
Where is AC Milan vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is AC Milan vs Genoa part of?
AC Milan vs Genoa is a Serie A fixture (matchday 35) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AC Milan vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives AC Milan a 52% chance of winning, Genoa a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both AC Milan and Genoa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will AC Milan vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AC Milan's attack rating (1.17) and Genoa's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.85x) against AC Milan's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from AC Milan's last 72 games and Genoa's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
52%
1.93
29%
3.47
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
AC Milan xG
Total xG
2.17
0.75
Genoa xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
5%
21.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.2 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AC Milan vs Genoa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Milan vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are AC Milan and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for AC Milan and 0.75 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Milan vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AC Milan come into this having played 72 games, going 41W 17D 14L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.61 PPG from 72 outings (31W 23D 18L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.94 PPG for AC Milan against 1.61 for Genoa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
AC Milan's home form reads 24W 6D 5L across their last 35 home games, a 2.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.34 points per game from their last 35 away games (12W 11D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Milan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AC Milan are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.26 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Milan
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
AC Milan (Home) vs Genoa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AC Milan
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
❓ AC Milan vs Genoa Form FAQs
What form are AC Milan and Genoa in coming into this match?
AC Milan have gone 41W 17D 14L in their last 72 games (1.94 PPG), while Genoa have gone 31W 23D 18L in their last 72 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Milan at home or Genoa away?
AC Milan's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Milan at home: 2.23 PPG; Genoa away: 1.34 PPG.
Have AC Milan or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Genoa in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between AC Milan and Genoa, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
AC Milan have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AC Milan won Genoa 0-3 AC Milan on 1 Dec 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Milan have gone 1W 3D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
AC Milan
3
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ AC Milan vs Genoa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Genoa?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, AC Milan have won 6, Genoa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AC Milan and Genoa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Genoa 1-2 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between AC Milan and Genoa?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Milan 51%, Genoa 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (AC Milan) and 46% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: AC Milan keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Genoa in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Milan home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AC Milan vs Genoa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AC Milan and Genoa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of AC Milan's recent matches and 51% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AC Milan and Genoa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of AC Milan's recent games and 46% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Milan and Genoa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of AC Milan's recent matches and 60% of Genoa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AC Milan and Genoa share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 35, as AC Milan and Genoa drew 3-3 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 1.41 xG and Genoa 0.75 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. AC Milan beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Genoa outscored their 0.75 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.17 / defence 0.78 against Genoa attack 0.85 / defence 0.89, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Milan 52% | Draw 29% | Genoa 19%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 57%, Genoa 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Milan's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Genoa's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Milan 1.94 PPG, Genoa 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AC Milan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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