AC Milan 2-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AC Milan at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AC Milan vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AC Milan host Bologna at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, AC Milan have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. AC Milan have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, AC Milan have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bologna — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, AC Milan have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, AC Milan have won 1, Bologna 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
AC Milan in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Bologna in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Milan 52% versus Bologna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Milan 48% | Bologna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Milan 1.72 xG and Bologna 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Milan attack 1.255 / defence 0.920 | Bologna attack 0.949 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.183. AC Milan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 AC Milan games / 40 Bologna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AC Milan 51% | Draw 28% | Bologna 21%. Fair-value odds: AC Milan 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Bologna 4.76. AC Milan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AC Milan at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AC Milan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: AC Milan 30% | Bologna 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Milan vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Milan 51% | Draw 28% | Bologna 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG AC Milan 1.72 / Bologna 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: AC Milan attack 1.255 / def 0.920 | Bologna attack 0.949 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
AC Milan xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Bologna xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Milan vs Bologna kick off?
AC Milan vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in AC Milan vs Bologna?
AC Milan 2 - 0 Bologna.
Where is AC Milan vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is AC Milan vs Bologna part of?
AC Milan vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives AC Milan a 51% chance of winning, Bologna a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both AC Milan and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will AC Milan vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Bologna?
Record (2 meetings): AC Milan 1W | Draws 1 | Bologna 0W.
What form are AC Milan and Bologna in?
AC Milan (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Bologna (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AC Milan's attack rating (1.25) and Bologna's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus AC Milan's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
51%
1.95
28%
3.57
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
AC Milan xG
Total xG
2.75
1.03
Bologna xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
4%
27.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are AC Milan and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for AC Milan and 1.03 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Milan vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AC Milan's recent record stands at 27W 9D 4L from 40 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for AC Milan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 17L across 40 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours AC Milan by 1.07 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bologna heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AC Milan have managed 13W 4D 3L from 20 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 4W 6D 10L across 20 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Milan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AC Milan are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.15 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Milan
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Milan and Bologna in coming into this match?
AC Milan have gone 27W 9D 4L in their last 40 games (2.25 PPG), while Bologna have gone 12W 11D 17L in their last 40 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Milan at home or Bologna away?
AC Milan's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Milan at home: 2.15 PPG; Bologna away: 0.90 PPG.
Have AC Milan or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Bologna in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AC Milan go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Feb 2026, when AC Milan won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AC Milan's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
AC Milan
3
Draws
1
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Milan have won 6, Bologna have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AC Milan and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Bologna 0-3 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between AC Milan and Bologna?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Milan 40%, Bologna 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (AC Milan) and 55% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: AC Milan keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Bologna in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Milan home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Milan play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of AC Milan's recent matches and 55% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Milan vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of AC Milan's recent games and 55% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Milan and Bologna tend to score early?
AC Milan have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bologna in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AC Milan cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Milan beat Bologna 2-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 1.72 xG and Bologna 1.03 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bologna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.25 / defence 0.92 against Bologna attack 0.95 / defence 1.01, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it AC Milan 51% | Draw 28% | Bologna 21%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 48%, Bologna 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Milan's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bologna's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.