UCD 1-0 Waterford – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Waterford at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as UCD face Waterford.

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Analysis & Preview

Waterford travel to Richmond Park to take on UCD in Premier Division (Finals). The game is scheduled for Friday 11 November 2022 at 19:45 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, UCD stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.

UCD's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Waterford — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Waterford away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: UCD 1.00 PPG, Waterford 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of UCD's games and 60% of Waterford's (from UCD's last 10 home games and Waterford's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for UCD, 0 for Waterford and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2021, ended UCD 2–1 Waterford — a UCD win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

UCD in-play tendencies (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.

Waterford in-play tendencies (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 46% versus Waterford 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 49% | Waterford 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 1.03 xG and Waterford 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.714 / defence 1.427 | Waterford attack 0.998 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.059. UCD's attack rating of 0.714 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. UCD's defence rating of 1.427 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Waterford's projected output up. Data: built from UCD's last 36 games and Waterford's last 36.

Result probabilities: UCD 26% | Draw 26% | Waterford 48%. Fair-value odds: UCD 3.88 | Draw 3.87 | Waterford 2.07. Waterford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Waterford as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waterford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: UCD 60% (last 10 home games) | Waterford 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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