St Patrick's Athl. 3-0 Waterford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford meet at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 September 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
St Patrick's Athl.'s overall Premier Division record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Waterford have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Waterford's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Waterford's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for St Patrick's Athl., 1 for Waterford and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2024, ended 0–1 with Waterford winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Waterford — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 52% versus Waterford 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 52% | Waterford 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.67 xG and Waterford 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.114 / defence 1.102 | Waterford attack 0.918 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 0.965. Data: 65 St Patrick's Athl. games / 30 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 52% | Draw 27% | Waterford 21%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Waterford 4.76. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 70% | Waterford 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 52% | Draw 27% | Waterford 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.67 / Waterford 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.114 / def 1.102 | Waterford attack 0.918 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.406 / away 0.965 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Waterford xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 20 September 2024 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
St Patrick's Athl. 3 - 0 Waterford.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 52% chance of winning, Waterford a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
Record (2 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 0W | Draws 1 | Waterford 1W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Waterford (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.11) and Waterford's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Waterford's attack (0.92x) against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 65/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.67
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.65
0.98
Waterford xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
4%
25.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.98 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, St Patrick's Athl. have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 10W 8D 13L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Waterford's form line: 14W 4D 13L from 31 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for St Patrick's Athl. against 1.48 for Waterford. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 1.73 PPG from 15 outings (8W 2D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — St Patrick's Athl. are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Waterford have gone 6W 2D 7L from 15 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.32 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 10W 8D 13L in their last 31 games (1.23 PPG), while Waterford have gone 14W 4D 13L in their last 31 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Waterford away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.73 PPG; Waterford away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 on 20 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Waterford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St Patrick's Athl.
4
Draws
1
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, Waterford have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Waterford 1-1 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 60%, Waterford 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 40% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Waterford in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 33% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 40% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Waterford in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant St Patrick's Athl. run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Waterford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Waterford 3-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.67 xG and Waterford 0.98 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Waterford landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.11 / defence 1.10 against Waterford attack 0.92 / defence 1.06, drawn from 65/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 52% | Draw 27% | Waterford 21%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 52%, Waterford 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Waterford's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.23 PPG, Waterford 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.