St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 17 as St Patrick's Athl. welcome Shelbourne to Richmond Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record at Richmond Park: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Shelbourne — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Shelbourne have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — St Patrick's Athl. at 1.70 PPG versus Shelbourne's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for St Patrick's Athl., 4 for Shelbourne and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2026, ended 3–2 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Shelbourne in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 43% versus Shelbourne 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Shelbourne 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 2.00 xG and Shelbourne 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.389 / defence 0.782 | Shelbourne attack 1.265 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.212. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.389 — their λ of 2.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shelbourne have an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — the away xG of 1.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 St Patrick's Athl. games / 51 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Draw 24% | Shelbourne 21%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Shelbourne 4.76. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 62% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 30% | Shelbourne 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Draw 24% | Shelbourne 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 2.00 / Shelbourne 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.389 / def 0.782 | Shelbourne attack 1.265 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Shelbourne xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 15 May 2026 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
St Patrick's Athl. 0 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 54% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne?
Record (8 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 2W | Draws 2 | Shelbourne 4W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
St Patrick's Athl.'s attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. The same calculation in reverse, Shelbourne's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.10
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
3.20
1.20
Shelbourne xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
14%
7.37
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
3%
34.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.20 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St Patrick's Athl.'s recent record stands at 30W 21D 21L from 72 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Shelbourne, meanwhile, have gone 32W 26D 14L across 72 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.54 PPG, Shelbourne on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, St Patrick's Athl. have managed 19W 10D 7L from 36 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shelbourne's away record stands at 15W 14D 7L across 36 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.22 scored and 0.89 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 games (1.54 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 32W 26D 14L in their last 72 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Shelbourne away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.86 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.64 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Shelbourne specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St Patrick's Athl.
2
Draws
5
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, Shelbourne have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Shelbourne 1-2 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Shelbourne 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 31% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Shelbourne in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Shelbourne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 53% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 31% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shelbourne defy the odds to beat St Patrick's Athl. 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 2.00 xG and Shelbourne 1.20 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. St Patrick's Athl. fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.39 / defence 0.78 against Shelbourne attack 1.26 / defence 0.96, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Draw 24% | Shelbourne 21%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Shelbourne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 47%, Shelbourne 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 PPG, Shelbourne 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Shelbourne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.