St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 2 as St Patrick's Athl. welcome Shelbourne to Richmond Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record at Richmond Park: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Shelbourne — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Shelbourne have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, St Patrick's Athl. have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Shelbourne in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 47% versus Shelbourne 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 56% | Shelbourne 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 xG and Shelbourne 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.084 / defence 0.952 | Shelbourne attack 0.973 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.050. Data: 37 St Patrick's Athl. games / 37 Shelbourne games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Draw 33% | Shelbourne 20%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.13 | Draw 3.03 | Shelbourne 5.00. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Shelbourne 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 24 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Draw 33% | Shelbourne 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 / Shelbourne 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.084 / def 0.952 | Shelbourne attack 0.973 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Shelbourne xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 24 February 2023 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 0 Shelbourne.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 47% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 20% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Shelbourne (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
St Patrick's Athl.'s attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Shelbourne's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
47%
2.13
33%
3.04
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.51
0.97
Shelbourne xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.90
48%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
4%
23.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.1 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.97 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St Patrick's Athl.'s recent record stands at 18W 7D 11L from 36 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Shelbourne, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 15L across 36 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours St Patrick's Athl. by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shelbourne heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, St Patrick's Athl. have managed 10W 3D 5L from 18 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shelbourne's away record stands at 5W 5D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.11 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 18W 7D 11L in their last 36 games (1.69 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 10W 11D 15L in their last 36 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Shelbourne away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.83 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.11 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Shelbourne specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St Patrick's Athl.
2
Draws
6
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, Shelbourne have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Shelbourne 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 39% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Shelbourne in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Shelbourne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 50% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 39% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Shelbourne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Shelbourne 1-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 xG and Shelbourne 0.97 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shelbourne landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.08 / defence 0.95 against Shelbourne attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 37/37 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Draw 33% | Shelbourne 20%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 56%, Shelbourne 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shelbourne's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.