St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Shamrock Rovers at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Shamrock Rovers have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St Patrick's Athl. 1.80 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for St Patrick's Athl., 5 for Shamrock Rovers and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 38% versus Shamrock Rovers 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 38% | Shamrock Rovers 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.30 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.000 / defence 0.781 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.069 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.306. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 St Patrick's Athl. games / 64 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 37% | Draw 35% | Shamrock Rovers 27%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Shamrock Rovers 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 40% | Shamrock Rovers 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 11 Sep 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 37% | Draw 35% | Shamrock Rovers 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.30 / Shamrock Rovers 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.000 / def 0.781 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.069 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Shamrock Rovers xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 11 September 2026 at Richmond Park.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 37% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (10 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 3W | Draws 2 | Shamrock Rovers 5W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.00) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
37%
2.68
35%
2.83
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.39
1.09
Shamrock Rovers xG
2.68
37%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
7%
13.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.09 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, St Patrick's Athl. have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 27W 20D 17L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 35W 16D 13L from 64 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.58 PPG, Shamrock Rovers on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 1.91 PPG from 32 outings (17W 10D 5L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 13W 11D 8L from 32 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.59 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 27W 20D 17L in their last 64 games (1.58 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 35W 16D 13L in their last 64 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.91 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.56 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 29 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shamrock Rovers go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St Patrick's Athl.
2
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 38%, Shamrock Rovers 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 53% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 66% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 53% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.