St Patrick's Athl. 2-2 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Shamrock Rovers at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Richmond Park this season.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Shamrock Rovers have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
St Patrick's Athl. are in the better shape of the two on current Premier Division data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 2.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for St Patrick's Athl., 1 for Shamrock Rovers and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 49% versus Shamrock Rovers 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Shamrock Rovers 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.32 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.218 / defence 0.803 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.996 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.081. Data: 45 St Patrick's Athl. games / 45 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 24%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Shamrock Rovers 4.17. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: St Patrick's Athl. 70% | Shamrock Rovers 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 18 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.32 / Shamrock Rovers 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.218 / def 0.803 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.996 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Shamrock Rovers xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 18 April 2025 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. 2 - 2 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 47% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (3 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 2W | Draws 0 | Shamrock Rovers 1W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.22) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
47%
2.14
30%
3.39
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.19
0.87
Shamrock Rovers xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
6%
15.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.87 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, St Patrick's Athl. have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 36W 13D 23L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 37W 22D 13L from 72 games, 1.85 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.68 PPG, Shamrock Rovers on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 1.89 PPG from 36 outings (21W 5D 10L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 15W 13D 8L from 36 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.62 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 36W 13D 23L in their last 72 games (1.68 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 37W 22D 13L in their last 72 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.89 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.61 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
St Patrick's Athl.
1
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 4, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Shamrock Rovers 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 33% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Shamrock Rovers in 47%; Shamrock Rovers in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 42% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 33% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 10, as St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.32 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.87 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.22 / defence 0.80 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.00 / defence 0.86, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 24%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Shamrock Rovers 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.68 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.