St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Dundalk travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl.. The game is scheduled for Friday 8 March 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dundalk away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (St Patrick's Athl.) versus 1.80 (Dundalk). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for St Patrick's Athl., 0 for Dundalk and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Dundalk trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 46% versus Dundalk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Dundalk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.06 xG and Dundalk 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.892 / defence 0.936 | Dundalk attack 1.020 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.297. Data: 40 St Patrick's Athl. games / 39 Dundalk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 32% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 40%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Dundalk 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Dundalk 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 32% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.06 / Dundalk 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.892 / def 0.936 | Dundalk attack 1.020 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Dundalk xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 8 March 2024 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 0 Dundalk.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 32% chance of winning, Dundalk a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
Record (3 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 2W | Draws 1 | Dundalk 0W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Dundalk (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St Patrick's Athl.'s attack at 0.89x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
32%
3.17
28%
3.54
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.30
1.24
Dundalk xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
9%
10.95
14%
7.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.24 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St Patrick's Athl.'s recent record stands at 37W 12D 23L from 72 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 34W 19D 19L across 72 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.71 PPG, Dundalk on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, St Patrick's Athl. have managed 20W 6D 10L from 36 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 12W 9D 15L across 36 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.51 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 37W 12D 23L in their last 72 games (1.71 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 34W 19D 19L in their last 72 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Dundalk away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.83 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.25 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Dundalk in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St Patrick's Athl.
3
Draws
2
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, Dundalk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 39%, Dundalk 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Dundalk in 31%; Dundalk in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 42% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as St Patrick's Athl. defy the odds to beat Dundalk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Dundalk 1-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.06 xG and Dundalk 1.24 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dundalk landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.89 / defence 0.94 against Dundalk attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 32% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 40%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual St Patrick's Athl. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Dundalk 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 PPG, Dundalk 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.