St Patrick's Athl. 2-1 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as St Patrick's Athl. take on Drogheda United.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Drogheda United at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 March 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 0.94 xG and Drogheda United 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.977 / defence 1.150 | Drogheda United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.833 / away 0.880. Data: 1 St Patrick's Athl. games / 1 Drogheda United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 32% | Draw 40% | Drogheda United 28%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 3.12 | Draw 2.50 | Drogheda United 3.57. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.80 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Mar 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 32% | Draw 40% | Drogheda United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 39% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 0.94 / Drogheda United 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.977 / def 1.150 | Drogheda United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.833 / away 0.880 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Drogheda United xG
39%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 March 2021 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
St Patrick's Athl. 2 - 1 Drogheda United.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 32% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 28% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (0.98) and Drogheda United's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Drogheda United's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.11
40%
2.51
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
1.80
0.86
Drogheda United xG
3.11
32%
Home win
2.51
40%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
11%
9.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 14.3 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.86 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
Drogheda United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
St Patrick's Athl. go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2024, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Drogheda United specifically: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
St Patrick's Athl.
4
Draws
0
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 6, Drogheda United have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Drogheda United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Drogheda United 2-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 0.94 xG and Drogheda United 0.86 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Drogheda United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 32% | Draw 40% | Drogheda United 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual St Patrick's Athl. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.