St Patrick's Athl. 3-2 Cork City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours St Patrick's Athl. (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as St Patrick's Athl. face Cork City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cork City make the trip to Richmond Park to face St Patrick's Athl. in Premier Division, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Friday 16 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
St Patrick's Athl. (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Richmond Park this season.
Cork City's overall Premier Division record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Cork City haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cork City's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 2.10 in St Patrick's Athl.'s favour (2.80 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, St Patrick's Athl. are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2025, ended 2–0 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both St Patrick's Athl. and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
St Patrick's Athl. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Cork City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 51% versus Cork City 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 57% | Cork City 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 2.21 xG and Cork City 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.206 / defence 0.796 | Cork City attack 0.873 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.146. Cork City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 St Patrick's Athl. games / 15 Cork City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 70% | Draw 18% | Cork City 12%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Cork City 8.33. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: St Patrick's Athl. 70% | Cork City 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 16 May 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 70% | Draw 18% | Cork City 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 49% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 2.21 / Cork City 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.206 / def 0.796 | Cork City attack 0.873 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Cork City xG
49%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 16 May 2025 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City?
St Patrick's Athl. 3 - 2 Cork City.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 70% chance of winning, Cork City a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City?
Record (5 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 4W | Draws 1 | Cork City 0W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Cork City (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates St Patrick's Athl.'s attack at 1.21x the league average against Cork City's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cork City's attack (0.87x) against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 51/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
70%
1.44
18%
5.46
12%
8.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
3.00
0.80
Cork City xG
1.44
70%
Home win
5.46
18%
Draw
8.28
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
11%
9.11
Win to Nil
31%
3.19
1%
75.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.80 for Cork City, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 37 games, going 17W 8D 12L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Cork City sit at 0.84 PPG from 37 outings (8W 7D 22L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. Cork City haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Cork City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 11W 2D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Cork City have taken 0.50 points per game from 18 outings (2W 3D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Cork City are on 0.97 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Cork City
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 17W 8D 12L in their last 37 games (1.59 PPG), while Cork City have gone 8W 7D 22L in their last 37 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Cork City away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.94 PPG; Cork City away: 0.50 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Cork City been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cork City in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 22 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 on 7 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cork City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
St Patrick's Athl.
2
Draws
0
Cork City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City?
From 8 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 6, Cork City have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. 4-0 Cork City.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 56%, Cork City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for St Patrick's Athl. and 72% for Cork City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cork City in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Cork City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Cork City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 50% of Cork City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of St Patrick's Athl.'s matches and 72% of Cork City's.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cork City in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Cork City 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Cork City 3-2 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 2.21 xG and Cork City 0.80 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cork City outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.21 / defence 0.80 against Cork City attack 0.87 / defence 1.34, drawn from 51/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 70% | Draw 18% | Cork City 12%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 57%, Cork City 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cork City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.